Labor majority in doubt at coronavirus NT poll

Labor fighting to retain majority in NT poll that will be the first big test of political sentiment during pandemic.

Territory Alliance leader Terry Mills, Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro and Chief Minister Michael Gunner ahead of the 2020 NT election. Picture: Che Chorley

Voters will go to the polls in the Northern Territory on Saturday, where Labor is fighting to retain its majority at a highly uncertain election set to be the first major test of political sentiment during the deadly coronavirus pandemic.

PDF: Seats to watch

In a normal political cycle, a party seeking a second term would campaign on its record in government and announce new policies and budgetary commitments.

But with about half of all potential ballots already cast through pre-polling, Chief Minister Michael Gunner used his final pitch to talk only about COVID-19. He argued that had the two-member Country Liberal opposition been in charge of the crisis, it would have opened the Territory’s borders to Victoria, likely costing people their lives.

“Under the CLP, coronavirus would have spread in the Territory,” he said. “When the heat was, when it really counted, the CLP put politics before people’s lives.”

Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro rubbished Mr Gunner’s “disgusting” claims and accused him of “eroding a special bond of trust”.

“He has engineered the COVID response to ensure that Territorians have to cling to his every word,” she said.

“For him to then use that during an election campaign pandemic public information to save his skin is … disgusting.”

 

Labor swept to power in 2016 with 18 seats but lost two to subsequent internal ructions. The CLP contests this election with a single incumbent, Ms Finocchiaro, after the party’s previous leader, Gary Higgins, stood down and quit politics earlier this year.

Thirty-five-year-old Ms Finocchiaro insisted she and her team of candidates were ready to govern, adding that the election was especially significant “because of the fragile position our economy, our debt and our community safety is in”.

Betting odds late on Friday favoured Labor to form the next government, but many pundits going seat-by-seat still struggled to pick a clear path to an outright majority. The wildcard in the election is Territory Alliance, a new party created by former CLP chief minister Terry Mills. In his final pitch to voters, Mills forecast an outright TA win.

“I have a sense that this is going to be something quite extraordinary,” he said.

Labor made no new spending commitments and announced no new policies during the campaign. Treasury examined CLP election promises worth about $120m, mostly funded through re-prioritisation. It cast doubt over the CLP’s ability to maintain existing levels of own-source revenue under its planned changes to mining tax changes. TA declined to submit costings despite having two former NT Treasurers in its ranks.

TA will preference the CLP ahead of Labor in all but three seats, and Mr Mills and Ms Finocchiaro (she is his former acolyte) have not ruled out governing in coalition.

The CLP scored about 30 per cent of the primary vote at the 2016 poll despite seeing its seat tally collapse. Party insiders say an outright victory is unlikely but hope to secure at least eight seats, which would provide a better platform for opposition.

Optimistic Labor number crunchers think their side could claim as many as 15 seats in the unicameral 25-seat Legislative Assembly, implying a net loss of just one. Others see at least 11 seats as probably in the bag for Labor but worry about the rest.

A key factor will be how well Labor’s vote holds up in the bush, where mobile pollsters have seen record low turnout. Some campaigners think Education Minister Selena Uibo will lose her seat of Arnhem to independent Ian Gumbula. Labor may re-take the independent-held seat of Mulka, which it lost last time by eight votes.