Labor heads for exit in Tasmania as voters quit Lara Giddings

SUPPORT for the Tasmanian Liberals has surged to highs not seen for two decades.

SUPPORT for the Tasmanian Liberals has surged to highs not seen for two decades and should sweep the party to majority government tomorrow, as Labor’s last hope — the undecided vote — evaporates.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian has the Liberals on 53 per cent of the statewide vote, Labor stalled on 23 per cent, the Greens on 16 per cent and the Palmer United Party on 4 per cent.

If reflected on Saturday, it would be the largest primary vote achieved by the Liberals since the 1992 election, when the party last swept a Labor-Greens power-sharing government from office.

Labor Premier Lara Giddings told The Australian her party believed a large undecided vote could swing to the ALP in the closing moments of the campaign, giving it a chance of continuing 16 years of government.

However, the Newspoll of 1524 voters evenly distributed among the state’s five electorates suggests the undecided vote has largely evaporated, with 90 per cent unlikely to change their minds.

An analysis of the poll suggests the Liberals will have a working majority and are on target to win at least 13 seats, and probably 14 or 15, in the 25-seat House of Assembly.

As The Australian became aware of a growing push within the ALP to ensure Ms Giddings is dumped as leader after the election, Newspoll suggested the party would hold just six of its 10 seats, and possibly only five.

It suggests Labor will probably secure only one seat in each of the five multi-member electoral divisions, except Hobart-based Denison, where it will probably win two. Failure by Labor to secure two seats in the division of Franklin, east and south of Hobart, would mean Labor would lose either Ms Giddings or her most likely replacement as leader, David O’Byrne.

Moves to dump Ms Giddings will be fuelled by the Newspoll, with her satisfaction rating at just 29 per cent, compared with 53 per cent for Liberal leader Will Hodgman. Ms Giddings is preferred premier for just 22 per cent, while 53 per cent prefer Mr Hodgman.

The Newspoll points to a widespread desire for majority government after four years of Labor-Greens power-sharing.

After their first taste of government, the Greens have slumped from 21.6 per cent support at the March 2010 election to 16 per cent.

Even so, the polling suggests the Greens should hold four of their five seats, with Green MP Paul “Basil” O’Halloran facing a difficult fight for the fifth seat in Braddon, where the Liberals could win four seats.

Despite a push by the Palmer United Party, the poll suggests it is unlikely to gain a toehold, as voters opt for the Liberals as the only way to majority government.

Newspoll has a proven track record of accurately reflecting voter sentiment in Tasmanian elections, including in 2010, when it precisely forecast that the two major parties would tie on 10 seats and the Greens would take five.

Before the full and final Newspoll results were in, Ms Giddings told The Australian she was unwilling to write off Labor, believing it could win over a large body of wavering voters. However, the final poll found only 8 per cent of voters, surveyed from Sunday to Wednesday, said there was just as much chance they might vote another way, while 67 per cent said they would not change and 23 per cent thought there was a “slight chance” they might vary from their initial choice.

“Voter commitment is high, with few likely to change their vote between now and the election,” said Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy.

This was uncannily similar to the last Newspoll on federal voting intentions before last year’s federal election, which also saw the Coalition swept to office after a period of minority Labor government supported by the Greens.