Kevin Rudd raises alarm with Chinese ‘military invasion’ of Taiwan

Kevin Rudd says there is a ‘rapidly unfolding change’ in Xi Jinping’s Taiwan strategy that has seen Beijing increase its use of ‘grey zone tactics’.

Australian Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd.

Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, says there is a ­“rapidly unfolding change” in Xi Jinping’s Taiwan strategy that has seen Beijing increase its use of “grey zone tactics” to advance China’s goal of reunification by 2049.

Dr Rudd said the escalating use by Beijing of “grey zone” tactics – coercive actions by a state that fall below the threshold of open conflict – could eventually escalate into “a broader blockade or even military invasion” if they did not sufficiently advance Beijing’s political objectives.

The comments from the former Labor prime minister come as Chinese Premier Li Qiang is due to visit Australia, with Anthony Albanese on Monday declaring he “welcomed re-engagement that is occurring with China … It’s a good thing. We want to co-operate where we can, we’ll disagree where we must, but we’ll engage in the national interest.”

In a speech to the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies in Honolulu earlier this month, Dr Rudd said maintenance of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait was no longer an acceptable outcome for Beijing.

“Maintaining the status quo might sound acceptable to the US but it is unacceptable to Beijing as China perceives Taiwan’s ongoing and growing autonomy to be intolerable,” he said.

“Beijing is signalling loud and clear that its political objective remains to force Taiwan into negotiations on its preferred “one country-two systems” model that it has used for Hong Kong.”

Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Picture: AFP

Dr Rudd said following the election of William Lai as President for the historically pro-­independence Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan, “we are beginning to see a change in Chinese strategy towards what it defines as the Taiwan problem”.

“It is important that the international community understands that while William Lai has uttered the magic words ‘maintain the status quo’ and has also made reference to the ‘Republic of China Constitution’ as the underpinning legal framework for his presidency (of itself, also important from Beijing’s ‘one-China’ policy perspective), these do not alone satisfy the PRC,” Dr Rudd said.

Beijing’s increasingly aggressive “grey zone” tactics have included intensifying naval, air, coast guard and other intrusions across the median line, Taiwan’s 38km contiguous zone, “to demonstrate the Taiwanese admin­istration is increasingly incapable of managing Taiwan’s claim to sovereignty”.

Dr Rudd said tactics also involved punitive economic measures to impede Taiwan’s trade and an international campaign to reduce Taipei’s diplomatic partners and representation in global ­bodies.

Citing The Economist, he said the Taiwan Strait was potentially the most dangerous place on earth, the risks of escalation into an all-out war were very great and that such a conflict would be of an order of magnitude not seen since World War II.

“The world is likely to become a radically different place after such a war than it was before,” he said.

Dr Rudd said the key issue was how the international community responded to China’s changing approach to Taiwan.

He also noted that the grey zone tactics being deployed by Beijing would only escalate over time.