G’Day Washington, my name is Kevin and I’m here to help. No matter what your opinion is of Kevin Rudd, the decision by the Albanese government to appoint him as Australia’s next ambassador in Washington is a diplomatic gamble of the highest order.
It may well turn out to be a visionary appointment – a former prime minister who is an expert in foreign affairs and who has the unique gravitas to move the dial in Washington to promote Australia’s best interests.
Or it could just as easily turn out to be a diplomatic disaster – a celebrity ambassador who cannot help but voice his opinions on everything and who behaves like a maverick beyond the control of government process and policy.
Australians have seen all sides of Rudd over the years – the good, the bad and the ugly. The question is which version will arrive in Washington to relieve the outgoing incumbent Arthur Sinodinos?
Has Rudd got the discipline and the self-control to be Australia’s ambassador in Washington rather than be, well, Kevin Rudd?
Rudd brings many strengths to Australia’s most important diplomatic post. Powerbrokers in Washington, both Democrat and Republicans, will be impressed by his credentials as a former prime minister, the first time Australia has made such a senior appointment to the US capital.
Americans are impressed by rank and political pedigree.
This greatly helped political appointees such as Sinodinos, Joe Hockey and Kim Beazley cut through in their role as ambassadors in the US capital.
Hockey turned out to be a man for the times, in dealing with and forging a good working relationship with the volatile Donald Trump.
Sinodinos has also proved to be a well timed appointment with his understated backroom style playing a crucial role in the formation of the key AUKUS pact.
Rudd is already well known in the US as a China expert, appearing regularly on US media. He has lived for much of the past decade in New York where he is head of the Asia Society. Politicians on both sides of the aisle in Washington will seek out Rudd’s views and this gives Rudd the opportunity to help shape the debate in the US on the critical issue of China’s rise.
But what sounds good in theory, may not necessarily work in practice. Rudd comes to the job with a ton of rhetorical baggage and a clear record of opposing the government, at least initially, on key areas of policy. He is also a chaotic manager of people as his dysfunctional prime ministership revealed.
Arguably Rudd’s most important role in his new job will be to help realise the hugely ambitious three-nation AUKUS agreement, which includes Australia’s new submarines. Yet Rudd trashed AUKUS when it was first announced, saying it would undermine Australia’s sovereignty by making us too dependent on the US. Rudd questioned the cost of the submarines to the taxpayer and claimed the Morrison government had not made its strategic case for the need for nuclear-powered subs.
Those views will have been noted by the Pentagon and by the White House and it will be incumbent on Rudd to convince the Americans that he and Australia are fully committed to AUKUS.
But the greatest risk of the Rudd experiment in Washington would be if Donald Trump succeeds in his bid to return to the White House in 2024.
Rudd has variously described Trump over the years as “nuts”, a traitor to the west, a threat to democracy and as someone who pursues protectionism that retards global economic growth. While these views are not outlandish among many political commentators, those commentators do not then get appointed to positions where they might actually have to engage positively with a president they have labelled as a nut.
If Trump were re-elected and Rudd was ambassador, it is hard to see Australia being treated kindly by a recycled Trump. It is looking more remote given that Trump is struggling in the polls amid legal and other controversies as Republicans consider alternatives.
Either way, Rudd’s appointment to the top job in Washington promises to be a wild ride.
Albanese claims Rudd will behave and thrive in the role. “He will conduct himself in a way that brings great credit to Australia,” he says. He must have been tempted to add: “Please Kevin, please.”
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