Julia Gillard outlines her plans for survival

Julia Gillard

IT is the early morning after the Parliament House midwinter ball and Julia Gillard looks fresh and sharp, radiating a determination and self-belief that mocks poll ratings suggesting she is finished politically.

Gillard is the complete professional. She knows that with Labor's house teetering on the edge any sign the leader is faltering under such huge pressure would be fatal. "By dint of personality I'm a fairly calm person," she says. Indeed, she projects grace under pressure.

"I'm someone who's always kept their eyes on the medium term and long term," she says, fixing me with a steely smile. It is her most important message amid growing political adversity. With Labor embattled over the carbon tax, the mining tax, the boatpeople and the live cattle ban, Gillard insists she has a long-run strategy and its exposition becomes the main theme of our interview.

Among her Labor MPs Gillard harps, above all, on this idea: she has a plan. "I know what I stand for," she says. The "plan" is Gillard's final hope. It is the last ray of optimism that binds Labor MPs together around the notion that Gillard, somehow, someway, must stay leader because she can find the path to recovery.

"I've got a great degree of confidence and optimism about my vision for the nation and this nation's future," Gillard says in the interview to mark the anniversary of her deposing Kevin Rudd and coming to power. With tensions between Gillard and Rudd apparent last week, the Prime Minister outlines her version of the June 2010 political assassination of Rudd. "I was loyal to Kevin Rudd," she says. What happened? Her answer is to invoke the party; it was the party that wanted a leadership change. Gillard believes her loyalty to Rudd during the previous 2 1/2 years as his deputy is not a contestable proposition.

"Until we were in the crucible of those couple of days my view was that Kevin would be continuing as PM," she says.

"It became clear to me in the crucible of those days that the Labor caucus wanted a different path and a different leader."

Gillard believes she was conscripted and legitimised to the leadership by the Labor caucus as distinct from staging a self-interested political assassination.

It is obvious the June 2010 crisis now defines the way Gillard governs. She didn't just replace Rudd. She openly says she replaced his governing style. In words guaranteed to infuriate Rudd, she says: "We work differently and that's because I choose to work differently."

What is the difference? "We have proper cabinet decision-making. I think we have a collegiate sense about the government. Of course, as Prime Minister I'm first among equals and drive the government's agenda. But I want proper methodical work practices and that's what we do." Decoded, she means unlike Rudd.

Explaining the caucus decision Gillard says the party wanted a person to "offer the leadership style and leadership substance for the future". Then she gets to the pivotal point: "I think the Labor caucus always wants to understand that the leader has a clear plan for the future, a clear view, about the purpose of Labor, about the mission of the party as well as a clear plan.

"I'm determined as PM to keep offering both. We don't need a public debate about what we stand for. I know what we stand for."

There is enough in these words to identify Gillard's view about the meaning of the 2010 leadership change. And it is not about polls. It is about prime ministerial leadership and strategy or the PLAN. This point is reinforced by senior ministers who claim the problem with Rudd was that he stopped governing, that he offered the party no game plan for the future.

"It is a government driven by my values," Gillard says. They are "opportunity and responsibility". Gillard says: "The distribution of opportunity is at the centre of this government." She refers to "Labor's modern mission", which is "to spread opportunity with a matching sense of responsibility".

"For me, personally, I feel comfortable in doing the job," Gillard says. "I feel that I learn something new every day. And so you should. I'm a fairly calm and serene person. I'm not someone who finds it hard to bear the stresses and strains that come with this responsibility." She says she applies her philosophy of life to being PM: "I hope I can keep growing, keep learning, keep getting better."

She believes she is making minority government work. "I don't live it or experience it day to day as a burden." she says.

Gillard keeps her nerve in the teeth of polls showing her ratings below those of Rudd when he was deposed. It must be a great humiliation. Yet she betrays nothing. The Labor fear is that the public has stopped listening to Gillard: that it has made up its mind. Yes, she has a plan, but so far the plan has taken Labor to the brink of ruin.

So, what is Gillard's plan?

"I made a decision once we formed government after the 17 days that the government would last the full term," Gillard says. So she plans to destroy Tony Abbott's campaign for an earlier poll. Gillard remains "very confident" since doing the deal with the Greens and independents. She says "nothing has happened since to undermine my confidence" that the parliament will run a full cycle to 2013. As a result she "deliberately decided" that the nation had to confront "tough reforms" during "the first two years of the government's life" and in the third year people can reflect on the "lived experience of these reforms before they vote at the election".

Gillard says the carbon package talks in the multi-party committee "are proceeding well". She is "determined to get this done" and "all the signs are good". Her best judgment and last hope is that, once legislated, the policy debate will change and that will drive a change in politics. Her faith in this seems unshakeable, perhaps because her survival depends on it.

"I would be astounded if the stakeholders support [Abbott's] repeal. I've lived through one of these political cycles before with the GST. And we opposed the GST. Once prime minister Howard had secured the legislation I know what the feedback was from Australian business about trying to unscramble this egg. It would have been the worst of all possible worlds to say: 'Let's try and undo this.'

"What that meant was Labor went to the 2001 election with a very, very limited proposition for change. I actually anticipate the same cycle here - that whatever view stakeholders have expressed in the run-up, the loss of certainty and the mechanics of trying to unwind a reform as big as this, means they will say to Tony Abbott: 'Don't do this; don't repeal it.'

"Wherever I go, businesses express a view about carbon pricing; some strongly in favour, some not in favour. That's true. But the over-arching thing people say to me is that for them to make decisions about long-lived investments, they need to see certainty. They can't make investment decisions or smart investment decisions if there are just unknowable risks. Tony Abbott's threat to repeal this legislation is one of these risks."

Understand what Gillard is saying. She believes once the package is legislated the policy issue changes. It then becomes a test of economic, financial and investment certainty. She asserts that business and stakeholders will reject Abbott's repeal policy, indeed, that his policy will be seen as a threat to economic stability.

This is tied to another wing of Gillard's plan: at this point Abbott will be inviting the nation "to live in the past".

"This nation has made its way by always being prepared to embrace the challenges of the future," Gillard says.

The notion of Abbott taking the nation backwards will be tied to Gillard's idea that carbon pricing is a test of Australia's ability "to get things done".

She has a further argument against Abbott's repeal pledge - that it defies practicality.

"Tony Abbott's definitely going to take the assistance away, so the dollars come out of your wallet," Gillard says. "He's then pretending to Australians he can really remove every price impact. Well, that's as unbelievable as saying that if Labor had repealed the GST we could have made every retailer in Australia put every price sticker on every good, in every shelf in every shop in the nation down by 10 per cent the next day. Now that's unbelievable." In short, she says Abbott can abolish the compensation but he can't guarantee to remove the price effect.

Gillard warns that legislating the package will not transform politics overnight. She is extremely anxious to kill such high expectations. "I don't think politics transforms in a moment," she says. "Life isn't like that. We will have the details of carbon pricing available in the middle of this year. We will still have many, many months of explanation and work to do to have those details understood in the community. This will still be a hard debate for many months to come. Then, before the 2013 election, I think Australians will probably judge from their lived experiences, because they will have a lived experience from July 1, 2012, they'll be able to sit and think: 'What has carbon pricing meant for me?', and they'll know and I think they will judge from that lived experience."

Her 2013 electoral mantra is obvious: "I want this period of government to be one where we embrace the challenges of the future." It is not just carbon pricing but the National Broadband Network, legislating the mining tax, getting back to surplus and putting a greater emphasis on workforce participation.

Staring into the political abyss, Gillard, as the professional, expounds upon her unfolding plan for pricing carbon.

She knows it is the narrative that makes or breaks her.