Josh Frydenberg aims Ukraine war salvo at Russians at G20 meeting

Josh Frydenberg has warned Russia that an invasion of Ukraine would deliver not only a human disaster but a devastating second shock to the global economy.

Josh Frydenberg, second from right, and Indonesia’s Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani, fifth from left, in Jakarta on Friday. Picture: AFP

Australia and Russia have clashed behind closed doors at a G20 ­finance ministers meeting in ­Jakarta, with Josh Frydenberg warning Russia that an invasion of Ukraine would deliver not only a human disaster but a devastating second shock to the global economy just as the world was ­recovering from Covid.

In an interview with The Weekend Australian, the Treasurer said Russia was playing a “dangerous game” with the global economy that threatened to derail the pandemic recovery.

Mr Frydenberg’s comments follow Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s assessment that Russia and the Ukraine were on the cusp of all-out war.

Scott Morrison said on Friday an invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces was imminent. “I hope that does not occur, but I think what we are seeing leads us to fear the worst,” the Prime Minister said.

In a closed-door intervention on Thursday night leading into the first G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers for this year, Mr Frydenberg issued a warning to his Russian counterpart that an invasion of Ukraine, which the West now fears is imminent, would have far-reaching human and economic costs.

“On the global outlook, we face a range of important challenges,” Mr Frydenberg told the meeting in which Russian deputy finance minister Timur Maksimov was present.

“The current tensions surrounding Ukraine are deeply ­concerning, We call upon Russia to de-escalate tensions, the ­alternative would be disastrous in both human and economic terms. It is in our collective interest that these tensions are resolved ­peacefully.”

The remarks from Mr Frydenberg earned a swift response from Russia, which accused Australia and Canada of using the economic forum as a security meeting.

“I want to respond to some of my counterparts who seem to be turning the G20 into a UN Security Council: stop listening to the fake news,” Mr Maksimov is understood to have said.

Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is understood to have issued a similar message, claiming that the knock-on economic consequences of an invasion of Ukraine would deliver a global shock to the economy worse than the pandemic.

Ms Freeland said she was worried the work the G20 was doing to recover could be jeopardised should Russia invade.

Speaking from Jakarta, Mr Frydenberg said the global shock of a conflict in eastern Europe would have devastating economic consequences on top of the human toll.

“Russia is playing a dangerous game with the global economy as tensions rise with Ukraine,” Mr Frydenberg said.

“Off the back of the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression, a conflict between Russia and Ukraine represents a major threat to the global recovery from Covid-19.

“Already the threat of invasion is impacting equity and energy markets, sapping confidence out of the global economy. Europe in particular is vulnerable with Russia supplying around one-third of its natural gas and about one-quarter of its crude oil imports. Such reliance could leave Europe hostage to Russia’s next move.”

“At a time when we need to be working together as a global economy, we have one nation looking to threaten another which could have huge economic consequences across the globe.”

“We must work together, if we are all to prosper following Covid-19; to do otherwise could cause irreparable damage to our global economy.”

Market analysts have painted extreme scenarios over a Ukraine conflict with the potential for oil prices to skyrocket from $US90 a barrel to $US150 a barrel.

Mr Morrison said the situation in Ukraine remained “very ­volatile”.

“We are very aware of the intent of the Russian forces amassed on Ukraine’s border,” the Prime Minister said.

“We have seen the reports of the cyber attacks that have been occurring in Ukraine, and we have seen the attempts to create pretexts for an invasion.”

Mr Morrison again called on the Chinese government to denounce Russia’s threats.

“I say again: those who do not denounce the violence that ­Russia is threatening Ukraine with, well, that leaves me very concerned,” he said.

“And the Chinese government is yet to denounce those threats of violence and I urge them to do so.

“They seek to play a positive role in global peace. Well, they could immediately denounce the threats of violence that are taking place on behalf of Russia.”

Mr Dutton said Russia and Ukraine were “on the cusp now of an all-out conflict”, after a ­kindergarten in eastern Ukraine was ­allegedly struck by pro-­Russian forces, injuring at least two people.

“Obviously (Russian President Vladimir Putin) can’t be taken at his word, (and) is manufacturing some sort of trigger or is in the process of executing the final ­stages of his plan to go into the Ukraine,” the Defence Minister said.

Russia has accused the West of propaganda, claiming it had withdrawn some troops from the border following the conclusion of military exercises in the region.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the UN Security Council that Russia was now in the early stages of an invasion, with western intelligence claiming that forces along the border between the two nations had in fact increased.

“The stakes go far beyond Ukraine,” Mr Blinken said in a 10-minute statement.

“This is a moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people as well as for the ­foundation of the United Nations charter and the rules-based ­international order that preserves stability worldwide.

“In fact, it’s unfolding right now, today, as Russia takes steps down the path to war and ­reissued the threat of military ­action.

“I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one.

“The information I presented here is validated by what we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight ­before our eyes for months.”

Mr Dutton said conflict ­appeared to be inevitable.

“There are lots of European leaders who have tried to avert this but it seems President Putin is pretty intent on his action and ­direction,” Mr Dutton said.

“That really is going to result in the loss of life, the loss of innocent life and we’ve seen it before in eastern Europe. We don’t want it repeated but we live in a very uncertain world.”

Mr Dutton said Australia had not been asked for troops and so had “no intention of sending troops”. “This is an issue NATO and Europe needs to deal with and those European leaders really need to step up and put the pressure even more pressure on to Russia to stop them,” he said.

Opposition deputy leader Richard Marles said there was hope for an “eleventh-hour miracle”, and it was important the international community stands as one with Ukraine.

“Russia should be withdrawing, obviously, and de-escalating but it’s really important at this moment that the world stands with Ukraine,” Mr Marles said.