John Barilaro doesn’t rule out a future tilt at Eden-Monaro, as some Nats pin hopes on Labor

NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has left open the possibility of contesting the seat of Eden-Monaro at the next federal election.

NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro, left, campaigns with Nationals Eden-Monaro candidate Trevor Hicks, centre, in Queanbeyan. Picture: Sean Davey

NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has left open the possibility of contesting the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro at the next federal election, as some senior party ­figures say they want Labor to ­defeat the Liberals at the July 4 by-election so “Barra” can have a crack later on.

Under the Coalition agreement, the Nationals cannot field a candidate in an electorate if there is a Liberal sitting member, and vice versa.

Nationals sources noted that if the Liberal Party candidate, Fiona Kotvojs, was victorious next week, Mr Barilaro would be “locked out” from running when the next federal election is held in 2021 or 2022.

The Australian understands some Nationals believe Labor picking up the seat would be the second-best outcome for the party at the by-election — behind its candidate Trevor Hicks winning — because Mr Barilaro would then be entitled to run.

 

After pulling out of the Eden-Monaro by-election race, citing a lack of support from federal ­Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, Mr Barilaro told The Australian he may run next time.

“I made the decision not to throw my hat in the ring for the by-election, which I stand by,” he said. “Regarding the next federal election, never say never. I won’t rule anything in or out.”

Several Nationals MPs were sceptical Mr Barilaro would contest the seat, given his brief dalliance with the idea of running in the by-election. But other MPs said the prospect of the NSW Deputy Premier fighting for a ­federal lower house seat at a full election was appealing.

“If Labor wins (on July 4), that’s an OK outcome,” one ­Nationals MP said.

While the Nationals have preferenced Dr Kotvojs ahead of Labor candidate Kristy McBain on its how-to-vote card, the party has provocatively preferenced Labor fourth.

Mr Barilaro is heavily involved in the Nationals campaign and has regularly hit the hustings with Mr Hicks, a Queanbeyan councillor and small business owner.

Mr Hicks’s policy agenda includes reversing cuts to the ABC, a royal commission into the dairy industry “from farm gate to fridge”, bringing forward the Barton Highway duplication project and overturning the Morrison government’s ban on importing vapes and nicotine refills.

“I’m not running to toe any government line and certainly don’t expect that if I’m elected, but I am the only candidate that can deliver from within government and also stand up to them when we need to,” Mr Hicks said.

The outcome of the Eden-Monaro by-election is expected to depend on preferences, with analysis by The Australian revealing Dr Kotvojs would have won the marginal NSW seat at last year’s federal election if more ­Nationals voters had directed their preferences to her instead of former Labor MP Mike Kelly.

Mr Kelly picked up 87 per cent of Greens preferences and almost 50 per cent from the two independents who ran last year, as well as nearly 13 per cent of ­Nationals voters’ preferences.

Had those 886 Nationals voters who put Labor before the Liberals on their ballot directed their vote to Dr Kotvojs instead, she would have finished 87 votes ahead, won the seat by a tiny margin of 0.04 per cent and given the Morrison government a two-seat majority in parliament, rather than the one it holds, having provided a Speaker.

Eden-Monaro, on a margin of just 0.85 per cent, is now Labor’s fourth most marginal seat in the country. At the 2019 election, Mr Kelly narrowly won Eden-Monaro on preferences, having polled just over 39 per cent of the primary vote.

Nationals preferences also prevented the Liberal Party from winning back Indi, in country ­Victoria, at the 2019 election.

Almost 20 per cent of Nationals preferences flowed to independent Helen Haines, the anointed successor of retiring crossbencher Cathy McGowan, enough to get Ms Haines past Liberal candidate Steve Martin.

Mr Martin would have ­finished 812 votes in front had he received the preferences of the 1814 Nationals voters who ­directed their votes to Ms Haines instead.