Joe Biden AUKUS blow to leave lingering bruise

Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison and Joe Biden in Cornwall in June. Picture: Adam Taylor / PMO

Emmanuel Macron says Scott Morrison lied to him about the Attack-class submarine contract. That’s unclear. But he was certainly misled.

Morrison did not and could not tell Emmanuel Macron when they dined at the Elysee Palace on June 12 that he would dump the French-designed subs. The Prime Minister says he raised with Macron that a conventional sub might not meet Australia’s needs.

But he spoke publicly at the time about contractual “gates” and the “much-improved position” of France’s Naval Group. He gave the sense that there were issues to be dealt with, but the parties were making progress.

Yet, three days earlier at Britain’s Carbis Bay, Morrison, Joe Biden and Boris Johnson all but finalised the AUKUS partnership.

Morrison said later there was “a clear sense of shared purpose” and an “easy sense of agreement” at the trilateral meeting. He didn’t tell Macron over dinner that his subs contract had been scuttled because his French counterpart would have used every bit of leverage he had with the US and UK to sink the nuclear option.

France’s disappointment was assured, but Australia could have softened the blow.

Less than a month before the AUKUS partnership was announced, Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton held an inaugural “2+2” meeting with their French counterparts, pledging to significantly enhance the nations’ security partnership.

A communique agreed by both countries at the August 30 meeting suggested the subs program was on track. “Ministers underlined the importance of the Future Submarine program,” it said.

That was, on the Australian side, a clearly disingenuous statement.

It’s hard to see why the government agreed to go ahead with that meeting, knowing what was to come just a few weeks later.

The US and UK left it to Australia to deal with the French, no doubt wanting to stay well clear of the Gallic outrage that would follow. They must also have appreciated that secrecy and even duplicity were vital.

So it’s unclear if Biden was out of the loop or just throwing Morrison under a bus to save face with Macron when he declared he was “under the impression France had been informed long before”. “It was not done with a lot of grace,” he said at the G20 in Rome.

Morrison is not a natural diplomat, preferring the pugilism of domestic politics over the international stage. “I make no apologies for getting the right result from Australia,” he said, rejecting Macron’s charge of deception.

The impact of Biden’s criticism is more concerning.

Australia can deal with a few years in the French diplomatic freezer, but it needs absolute US commitment to the AUKUS partnership if Australia is to have any hope of getting its promised subs within the next two decades.

If the US drags its feet even a little, the Collins-class may well be the last submarines we ever buy.