Jacinta Allan almost certain to replace Daniel Andrews, as rivals tussle for deputy
A realignment is taking place within Victorian Labor, as MPs and factional powerbrokers prepare for a post-Daniel Andrews world.
A major realignment is taking place within the Victorian Labor Party, as MPs and factional powerbrokers prepare themselves for a post-Daniel Andrews world, with Jacinta Allan widely expected to take the top job but her successor as deputy premier far from certain.
While it would not be beyond the Victorian Premier to choose to stick around – if only to prove those speculating about his future wrong – Labor insiders widely expect he will quit politics within the next 12 months, having been Premier for nine years in November, and Labor leader for 13.
Ms Allan’s role as the minister responsible for Commonwealth Games delivery – until the government announced they would not be delivered – has sparked mutterings within caucus about her competence, but few of the factional players The Australian interviewed for this article saw an alternative to her ascendancy.
The list of contenders for deputy premier includes Mental Health and Ambulance Services Minister Gabrielle Williams, Industry, Employment and Public Transport Minister Ben Carroll and Health Minister Mary-Anne Thomas, as well as Climate Action, Energy and Resource Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, who is closely associated with the ALP branch that was last week linked to allegations it forged the signatures of dead people on membership renewal forms.
Helping to cement Ms Allan’s path to the top job is a significant shift of power to the Socialist Left faction, of which she, Andrews, D’Ambrosio, Williams and Thomas are members, following the ousting of Adem Somyurek and his allies following the 2020 branch-stacking scandal, and the defection of seven MPs from the Right to the Left late last year.
“It’s going to be JA,” said one senior Labor source of Ms Allan’s future as premier, while adding that if former attorney-general and health minister Jill Hennessy remained in parliament, “a lot of us would look at her”.
“There’s no credible alternative, and no numerical path to a different result.”
Another said the Commonwealth Games announcement “was when people started questioning whether (Allan) was seriously the only option. It was the first time people have questioned that since she emerged after Hennessy left. But the reality is she probably is.”
A third Labor factional player said there was “no dispute around Jacinta from the Left’s perspective, although we do want to see a change of culture internally and a return back to consultative cabinet government, rather than everything being dictated by the Premier’s office.”
Concern from within both the Left and Right over the concentration of power in the Premier’s office under Mr Andrews has some on a warpath to mitigate any chance of his close associate Ms D’Ambrosio becoming the party’s deputy leader.
One powerbroker said the Climate Action Minister had assumed a role as the Premier’s “fixer” after Mr Andrews fell out with party elder Gavin Jennings, who left parliament in 2020.
“Even though Daniel doesn’t go to factional meetings, Gavin used to, and now Lily does. If Daniel (leaves), will that make Lily the person who fills a power vacuum and takes over the Left? MPs do not want that happening,” the powerbroker said.
“They don’t mind her being Daniel’s fixer, but they don’t want her becoming the factional leader within the Left. She doesn’t bring any unions or MPs with her. She doesn’t have any numbers now her branch has been cleaned out. People don’t like her. They want to move on from the Daniel days when he goes.”
Another factional player said that while Ms D’Ambrosio had “become the person delivering (the Premier’s) threats, no one’s ever filled Jennings’ shoes. And that’s the problem. When Gavin left, there was no one in his inner circle who was prepared to say no to him.”
“There is a small group around Lily, and they’re the Dan loyalists,” the source said, indicating there has been a thawing in relations between a Socialist Left subfaction centred in Melbourne’s southeast, and one which was historically aligned with former senator Kim Carr but now coalesces around Minister for Community Sport and Suburban Development Ros Spence and her husband, Labor strategist and pollster Kos Samaras.
“Those groups include basically everyone except them (the Andrews/D’Ambrosio loyalists),” the source said.
One potential beneficiary of a move to thwart Ms D’Ambrosio is Ms Williams, who was once close to the Premier but is said to have fallen out with him.
“If there was a push from the Left (for the deputy premiership), it would be for someone like Gab Williams, who’s got broad support,” one powerbroker said.
Another obvious winner – and the leading contender from the Right – is Mr Carroll, who is aligned with the “Labor Unity” faction historically linked to his former boss Stephen Conroy, and recently aligned with Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles.
Anthony Carbines, from the TWU faction, is also regarded as being ascendant within the Right, with the job of Treasurer likely to go to one of Mr Carroll, Mr Carbines or Assistant Treasurer Danny Pearson (from the AWU Right), in the likely event that Tim Pallas follows Daniel Andrews out the door.
Another Left contender for deputy is Ms Thomas but given the preference among some within her ex-Carr subfaction for Ms Williams, it is difficult to see her gaining sufficient numbers.
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