It’s Covid, stupid: states give PM an election headache

The pandemic may have been the making of Scott Morrison’s leadership but it is slowly eating away at the federal Coalition vote in the gung-ho hard border states of Western Australia and Queensland.

The state by state breakdown of Newspoll data for the first three months of the year will bolster the Prime Minister’s predisposition not to hold an election any time this year.

In the absence of an electoral buffer, the primary vote is currently too low for the government to be re-elected. Where the Prime Minister is most dominant, the Liberal and Nationals parties have gone backwards. A reliance on winning seats in NSW could not be assured and, on the current numbers, any gains may not be enough to make up for potential losses in WA, Queensland and South Australia.

But there is a contrary dilemma for Anthony Albanese.

In those states where the Labor brand is strongest, based largely on the popularity of Labor premiers, the Opposition Leader is most on the nose.

The hammer and anvil are now poised for a federal election contest where voters will be forced to choose between a party they like least and the leader they may prefer, or vice versa.

WA is the standout story of the COVID predicament. There can be little question now that Mark McGowan’s demolition of the WA Liberal Party has resulted in significant brand damage for the federal party.

Morrison’s net approval rating in WA — plus 37 — is the highest of any state and has been maintained despite falls elsewhere. His margin over Albanese as preferred prime minister — 41 points — is also the largest of any state.

Morrison’s personal numbers in Queensland are similar. Yet it is in both these states — the two states to have recently held elections in which the Liberals and Nationals have been hammered — that the Coalition federally has also plummeted over the past three months.

Rape allegations, sordid sexcapades in Parliament House, and failures to adequately address the mistreatment of women in politics have undoubtedly contributed to the political damage for the Morrison government.

It will be hotly debated how much influence these issues have had, considering there has been no net loss of female voters for the Coalition — no shift in the female primary vote, and no movement in the two-party-preferred split.

If the recent WA election proved anything, the primary concern for voters is still health protection and the management of COVID. And on this, Morrison is going up against four Labor leaders rather than just one.