Indigenous voice to parliament referendum fatigue is kicking in on the final run home

The stakes are high for Anthony Albanese if the voice referendum goes down. Picture: Martin Ollman / NCA NewsWire

As Australians fire up barbecues and stock eskies for the footy finals long weekend, Yes and No campaigners will have a brief reprieve from the gruelling slog of the voice referendum campaign trail.

Ahead of the Australian Electoral Commission opening early voting centres next week, voice campaigners are finalising preparations for the final two-weeks.

The road to October 14 has been a marathon for veteran Yes23 and Uluru Dialogue campaigners who have endured years of frustration, broken promises and internal disputes over what constitutional recognition should look like. On the other side, and from a standing start, the No campaign has pulled together an alliance of conservative forces.

While Anthony Albanese announced the October 14 referendum date on August 30, the starter’s gun was fired when he took to the Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL Club stage on election night and declared: “I commit to the Uluru Statement from the Heart in full.”

Illustration: Johannes Leak.

The 16-month trek towards constitutionally enshrining a voice to parliament and executive government has worked against the Yes campaign. For many Yes campaigners, who reflect on polls last year showing emphatic support for an Indigenous voice, time has become the enemy.

ALP and Yes23 campaigners are not giving up. Backed by more than 40,000 volunteers, a $20m advertising blitz and a ground game assisted by unions and activist groups, the Yes side is working to pull off a come-from-behind win.

A senior Labor operative said the No campaign line – “If you don’t know, vote no” – had started to lose impact as more Australians understood the voice concept. A No campaigner said many voters, particularly older and conservative Australians, were sceptical about a major change to the Constitution. The lack of detail on the voice has also helped.

Yes23 will likely shift the narrative to what defeat means for Indigenous Australians and the country. The tone of the debate, which turned uglier in recent weeks, is expected to become more negative as both sides seek to lock in soft and undecided voters.

Clive Palmer is throwing $2m at the No campaign. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Dan Peled

Yes supporters will associate Clive Palmer’s $2m ad blitz with the No campaign, despite no official links between the groups. Yes campaigners have sought to paint the No side as being funded by mining billionaire “villains”.

With at least $26.7m out of an expected $50m Yes23 warchest underwritten by big companies and philanthropic groups, the No campaign will attack their opponents for being a vehicle for elites.

Both sides have sought to claim “underdog” status.

Just over two weeks out from referendum day, the Yes campaign can rightfully claim the tag.

The stakes for Albanese and Peter Dutton are high. Whoever lands on the losing side will carry residual damage all the way to the 2025 election.