India’s Covid troubles bad news for us

Scott Morrison was right to take hard actions to keep the double mutant strain of COVID-19 ravaging India out of Australia.

He was also right to take a tone of maximum Australian solidarity with the giant of the subcontinent, saying: “India is a great friend of Australia.”

Australians should understand this: India’s troubles are Australia’s troubles.

India’s present distress, which is acute and tragic, is a significant strategic blow to Australia.

Remember that historic Quad summit of seemingly five minutes ago? The great deliverable was that the US and Japan would invest in COVID vaccine manufacture in India and Australia would make sure these vaccines were delivered through “the last mile” to communities in need in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific.

Not to put too fine a point on it, the Quad was going to counter Chinese soft power and money influence by doing good works regionally. Central to these good works was the state capacity of India. Right now, that state ­capacity is being torn down.

Australia has an overwhelming strategic interest in the success of India. At the same time China was launching three new hi-tech war ships, India was failing to cope with the basics of public health.

India’s crisis was not inevitable. It has involved some bad luck and some bad management. India did reasonably well with COVID partly because the age profile of its population is young and the virus doesn’t attack young people as much or as ­severely. It also took substantial social distancing actions.

Then the mutations of the virus became more effective at targeting the young, the nation grew tired of social distancing and the vaccine rollout was slow.

India has exported nearly 70 million vaccine doses but it has not given sufficient priority to securing enough vaccines for its own use. Like other producers, it has also had some trouble securing the basic components needed to make vaccines.

We ought not to overstate failures of the Indian government: until recently, it seemed to be doing quite well. And we should not forget the early scenes of near-collapse of the health system in northern Italy, one of the richest parts of one of the richest regions in the world.

Hopefully, India’s distress is temporary. The other members of the Quad ought to show that the Quad really means something by prioritising aid to India.

There is a short-term need for equipment to meet the crisis today, but in the medium term, only increasing India’s vaccine capacity can meaningfully change the situation.

Our stake in India succeeding in meeting this challenge, and succeeding pretty quickly, is enormous. The first priority must be humanitarian but the strategic dimension of what’s going on is fundamental.

India’s successes are good news for us. Its troubles are very bad news for us indeed.