How to stop spread of Covid-19 Delta variant: jab all teenagers

Vaccinating more than three million children and teenagers under the age of 15 would likely halve the long-term spread of Covid-19.

A couple walks through Burwood’s shopping centre on Friday night, in one of the local government areas that will be subject to a curfew from Monday. Picture: Liam Mendes

Vaccinating more than three million children and teenagers under the age of 15 would likely halve the long-term spread of Covid-19.

New University of Melbourne modelling – which comes as Scott Morrison awaits advice on ­extending the national vaccination ­program to those aged as young as 12 – predicts that the move could make lockdowns one-third less likely.

The new modelling, led by ­epidemiologist Tony Blakely, estimates that vaccinating children from the age of five and up would halve the infection rate that Australia is likely to see once interstate borders are opened.

The nation’s vaccine coverage targets should no longer assume children were significantly less likely to be infected with Covid-19, Professor Blakely said.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said on Friday her government would introduce harsher restrictions across Greater Sydney, with masks required to be worn outdoors.

But it will be the millions of residents across 12 local government areas in the city’s west and southwest who will face the strictest measures. From Monday, there will be a 9pm curfew with only one hour of exercise permitted, officials said.

Victoria is also on the brink of stricter restrictions after Premier Daniel Andrews warned that the state’s outbreak was close to ­“spiralling out of control”. In a late-night statement, a government spokesman said: “All options are on the table.”

There were 644 Covid-19 cases recorded in NSW and 55 in Victoria on Friday, with both states ­bracing for higher infections.

The rate of vaccinations has risen sharply since the start of ­August. Under the national road map out of the pandemic, lockdowns and border closures would be used rarely once vaccine coverage hit 80 per cent. Restrictions would begin to be eased, however, as coverage reached 70 per cent.

Data analysts have estimated that – if the current pace is maintained – 70 per cent of those aged 16 and over could be fully vaccinated by November 3 and 80 per cent by November 21.

If children were included in the targets, 80 of the population aged over 12 could be fully vaccinated by November 29.

“Our seven-day average daily doses is a whopping 251,050,” said data analyst Juliette O’Brien.

“Assuming this warp speed continues, we would easily hit the target of having 80 per cent of over 16s fully vaccinated by November 21.”

The Prime Minister, who is ­expected to receive advice from the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation about ­extending the program this week, suggested that the 80 per cent coverage target would not be changed to include those aged ­between 12 and 15, even if they were made eligible for the vaccine.

“The recommendation from the Doherty Institute did not ­include and actually specifically did not include 12 to 15s and did not consider it necessary (that they) be included in those overall vaccination rates to trigger when you can move to the next phases,” Mr Morrison said.

“So when we continue to report figures, it’ll be based on the population 16 and above.”

State governments are ­increasingly concerned about the spread of the Delta variant among young people , with one-third of cases in NSW in those aged under 19 and a quarter of cases in Victoria in children aged under nine.

NSW health department figures show that 32 per cent of the Covid-19 cases diagnosed in the state in the past two weeks have been in those aged under 19, with 778 cases in children nine and under and 1111 cases in those aged between 10 and 19.

In Victoria, one-quarter of ­active cases of Covid-19 are in children aged under nine years old.

Victoria’s deputy chief health officer Ben Cowie said: “This is a completely different epidemiological pattern than what we’ve seen previously.”

Despite his modelling taking in children as young as 5, Professor Blakely said it was more than achievable to have everyone aged over 12 vaccinated by the end of the year.

“I think the adult vaccination is going extremely well and I don’t see why, if we really wanted to, we couldn’t double vaccinate all school kids by Christmas,” Professor Blakely said.

“We might even be able to get a single shot into all primary school kids as well.”

NSW’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, said this week parents should not to send children to school or childcare centres ­unless they had no other choice, citing concerns over the rapid spread of the coronavirus in the younger age groups.

Despite the concerns, health experts say it is rare for children to become seriously ill from Covid-19 and a recent study published in prestigious academic journal The Lancet put the risk of children suffering long-term ­effects of the virus at 1.7 per cent.

The rate of a child under four years of age being hospitalised was 1.7 per cent, NSW health figures show, and 0.9 per cent for those aged between 5 and 11.

University of Sydney infectious diseases paediatrician Robert Booy said the key reason children made up such large proportions of diagnosed cases of Covid-19 during the Delta wave was because they were unvaccinated, rather than there being anything in particular about the strain that made it more transmissible in children.

“It’s not a question of Delta honing in on children, it’s a question of Delta honing in on people who are unvaccinated,” Professor Booy said.

“Covid is much milder in children and although a small percentage might be hospitalised, the risk of severe disease even without vaccinating children remains very low.”

The New Zealand government announced on Friday it would begin to vaccinate children aged 12 to 16.

In Australia, 11.5 per cent of teenagers aged between 16 and 19 have received a first dose of vaccine and 3.9 per cent are fully vaccinated.

Mr Morrison said a youth vaccination program was already being developed with the assistance of state and territory governments. Extending the vaccination program to children aged 12 would add about 1.25 million children to the 20.6 million currently eligible to receive a vaccine.

“We need to run that in parallel, of course, with the national vaccination program, of which it will form a part,” Mr Morrison said on Friday.