Hodgman won’t play without clear majority

TASMANIAN Liberal leader Will Hodgman will lead his party back into opposition if it wins the most seats in any hung parliament.

TASMANIAN Liberal leader Will Hodgman will lead his party back into opposition if it wins the most seats in any hung parliament elected on March 15.

During the first state election leaders’ debate in Hobart yesterday, Mr Hodgman stood by his previous pledge to govern in majority or not at all.

He said he would maintain this stance even if the Liberals won 12 seats in the 25-seat House of Assembly, one short of a majority, and Labor as few as 8.

“If that’s what happens, we get another Labor-Greens minority government,” he said.

The latest opinion poll released yesterday by local pollsters EMRS suggest the most likely scenario is a Liberal majority government.

It shows Labor’s decision to tear up its power-sharing alliance with the Greens has not produced any lasting lift in its vote, which rose 1 per cent since the last EMRS poll.

The Liberal vote increased by the same margin to 50 per cent, the Greens fell 2 per cent to 17 per cent and the Palmer United Party scored 4 per cent. However, Premier Lara Giddings tried to rally the Labor cause by pointing to a large undecided vote.

Of the 1000 Tasmanians polled, 23 per cent were undecided; that dropped to 13 per cent when “leanings” were sought. Of the 10 per cent with known leanings, 5 per cent went Liberal, 4 per cent to Labor and 1 per cent to the Greens.

Labor strategists believe that if they can secure the lion’s share of the stubborn undecided vote, they might hold the Liberals to 12 seats, one short of majority.

However, Ms Giddings said in this scenario it was likely Mr Hodgman would be replaced as leader by another senior Liberal MP, such as Peter Gutwein or Matthew Groom, so that the Liberals could govern in minority.

The last parliament had the two parties tied on 10 seats each and the Greens on 5. EMRS polling does not provide a seat-by-seat breakdown, but ReachTEL polling earlier this month did — and it suggested the Liberals would win 14 seats, Labor 7 seats and the Greens 4.