‘Hate’ for Jacinta Allan, Victorian Labor diminishing party stronghold

Victorian Liberals are confident Peter Dutton’s outer-suburban campaign strategy, combined with what Labor figures concede is ‘hate’ towards the Premier, will see the party’s vote surge in an ALP stronghold.

Peter Dutton at a Liberal Party rally at Melton in the electorate of Hawke outside Melbourne in Victoria. Picture: Richard Dobson

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Victorian Liberals remain confident Peter Dutton’s outer-­suburban campaign strategy, combined with what Labor figures concede is “hate” towards Labor Premier Jacinta Allan, will see the party’s vote surge in the ALP stronghold of Bruce.

While stopping short of predicting a surprise victory there on May 3, Liberals are reporting a positive response from voters in the electorate that Labor has held for some 29 years.

Liberals hope this sense of support on top of a favourable redistribution that brought strong Liberal areas of Berwick into the electorate has weakened Labor’s grip enough to give them an outside chance.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan. Picture: NewsWire/ David Crosling

The Liberal Party’s Afghanistan-born candidate for Bruce, Zahid Safi.

A Victoria Liberal identity who has been campaigning hard in the traditional Labor stronghold has stopped short of tipping a victory on Saturday, but predicted a surge in support. “I reckon it will be close,” they said. “It still feels OK.”

A senior Victorian ALP source has conceded that while there was “no real concern” within the party that Bruce might fall to the Lib­erals, campaign staff had detected “lots of hate” directed to state Labor and the Premier among traditional Labor voters.

“The days of this being a safe seat for us are over,” the source said. “Cost of living, state taxes, housing and the fact Labor’s been in power in Victoria for 21 of the past 25 years means they’re really blaming Labor.”

A Labor figure familiar with that region said the post-2022 election redistribution had weakened the ALP’s grip on the seat.

“It had a bad redistribution which took in Liberal parts of Berwick,” the Labor figure said. “On a good day, I would have said the Liberals could have a shot, but they’ve not had a good day for a long time. It’s close, though. State (Labor) is on the nose big time out there.”

Labor has held the seat since 1996, with Labor MP Julian Hill winning the electorate comfortably in 2016, 2019 and 2022.

Julian Hill won the seat comfortably in 2016, 2019 and 2022 Picture: Fia Walsh

Labor figures concede the redistribution, which the Australian Electoral Commission estimates has reduced the ALP margin over the Liberals to 5.31 per cent, has hurt the party and they are bracing for a close result on Saturday.

While Mr Hill was re-elected in 2022, AEC data shows Labor’s primary vote fell by about 6 per cent.

Labor has also described the campaign run by the Liberals’ ­Afghanistan-born candidate Zahid Safi as “passionate” and his cultural background was likely to attract traditional ALP voters in the local Afghan community.

Bruce borders the federal electorates of Chisholm and Aston, which are likely to fall to the Liberals.

Bruce takes in the booming suburbs of Cranbourne North, Narre Warren South, Berwick and Narre Warren North.

Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail with Bruce MP Julian Hill. Picture: Jason Edwards

The AEC puts Labor’s post-­redistribution margin in Chisholm at 3.33 per cent and the traditional Liberal seat of Aston at 3.57 per cent.

Liberal strategists hope voter anger at state Labor and the Premier will help sweep them to victory in both electorates.

The Opposition Leader has been hammering his outer-­suburban strategy, particularly in Victoria, and on Sunday staged a campaign town hall meeting of party faithful in the Labor-held seat of Hawke in Melbourne’s northwest.

He asked the crowd to raise a hand if their power bill had come down by $275 since Labor was elected to government, to which the crowd laughed and stayed still.

Mr Dutton said the voice referendum, the broken power promise and the denial about falling off the stage added to a pattern of behaviour.

“We presented to the Australian people as a credible alter­native government,” he said.

“It started with the voice when as a party and as Australians with similar values, we stood up because we didn’t like our country to be divided.

“We wanted to make sure we could help Indigenous Australians, but we weren’t going to divide our country on heritage or race.”