Greens’ expansion bid backfires as major parties eye the spoils

After a disastrous result for the left-wing party on Saturday night, the major parties are refocusing their attention on the Greens’ Brisbane seats at the next federal election.

Greens MP Michael Berkman retained the inner-city seat of Maiwar. Picture Lachie Millard

The Greens’ three seats in Queensland will be targeted by both major parties at the next federal election after Saturday’s devastating state result for the left-wing party.

The return of South Brisbane to Labor after just one term has shattered the illusion that the party’s gains would be permanent and their failure to pick up any new seats has stalled any momentum the Greens had built at previous state and federal elections.

While the minor party had fancied its chances of wresting Miller and McConnell from Labor, they failed to make any meaningful inroads in those target electorates and were left with only one seat in the Queensland parliament.

Even that contest was much closer than expected, with the Liberal National Party’s Natasha Winters riding a 4.6 per cent swing to almost unseat Michael Berkman in Maiwar.

A senior Labor insider told The Australian on Sunday the party would aim to blunt the Greens’ advances and win back its former seat of Griffith, which includes the state electorate of South Brisbane, at the next federal election by focusing on social, progressive policies and cost of living.

The LNP also has renewed hopes of winning back Ryan and Brisbane from the Greens, crediting the minor party’s stance on the Middle East with turning off ­voters.

Anthony Albanese said the Greens’ poor result was a public repudiation for playing a “blocking role” in parliament that should serve as a lesson to federal Greens leader Adam Bandt.

“Retaining of seats that were seen to be under threat but also gaining a seat off the Greens political party, I think, sends a message,” the Prime Minister said.

“The people who elected Greens party representatives to state and federal parliament expected them to play a progressive role, not to play a blocking role, to seek to bring people together, not to divide people.

“I think there is a big message in this result for Adam Bandt.”

Anthony Albanese. Picture: NewsWire / Simon Bullard.

Mr Albanese said the Greens’ loss in South Brisbane, which it won from Labor in 2020, reversed an established orthodoxy that suggested progressive crossbenchers who won seats would retain them. “Of course last night that was proved wrong,” he said.

The Greens have blamed the loss of South Brisbane on Labor’s adoption of Greens-style policies around cheap public transport, free school lunches and free GP visits.

Mr Bandt warned Mr Albanese that Labor would lose the next election if it continued to focus on fighting the minor party rather than winning seats from the ­Coalition. “Instead of fighting the LNP, Labor gave up on government and focused on fighting the Greens,” he said.

“If Labor focuses on fighting the Greens, the Liberals get to take over. When Labor realises the Greens can work with them, we can make these positive changes a reality.”

Mr Berkman claimed the election showed the party’s policies were popular and that the Greens movement was “growing”, despite the loss of a seat.

“(Labor) managed to hang on to some inner-city seats by partially copying Greens policies and pouring more resources into keeping us out than they did into challenging the LNP; as a result we’ve got a conservative government in Queensland now,” he said. “It’s clear that Labor is frightened of the rise of the Greens, there’s no doubt about that.

“The question right now is whether Albanese is prepared to make the same mistakes Steven Miles has and continue to confect a fight with the Greens over policies that we apparently agree on and in the process hand the reins over to Peter Dutton.”

Iranians, Hindus and Queensland Jewish Collective campaign against the Greens at election booths in Maiwar, Indooroopilly, Brisbane. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen / Courier Mail

Max Chandler-Mather, who won Kevin Rudd’s former Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor in 2022, said the election result highlighted the risks of expending resources campaigning against the Greens rather than the opposition.

“Labor spent so much time and energy trying to stop the Greens in Brisbane (that) they abandoned the suburbs and regions and handed government to the LNP, giving up the opportunity to form a minority government with the Greens, betraying progressive voters across the state,” he said.

Analysis of Saturday’s election result shows that while the Greens lost South Brisbane, they improved their vote in three other state electorates overlapping with the federal electorate of Griffith, but generally performed worse in seats within the federal seats of Ryan and Brisbane, which it won from the Liberals in 2022.

The Greens’ primary vote fell in the two seats it held before the election – Maiwar and South Brisbane – and in the two seats that were its key targets for gains – neighbouring Cooper and McConnell.

The minor party recorded an increase in primary votes in many of the seats that ringed these four, raising suggestions of a demographic shift in Greens voters out of their traditional strongholds.

Queensland Nationals senator Susan McDonald said Saturday’s result reflected public dissatisfaction with progressive minor parties and independent candidates. “For too long the Greens and other minor parties have not been held accountable to their populist claims as they went about willy-nilly destroying jobs, industries and incomes,” Senator McDonald said.

“The lack of scrutiny and accountability has spurred … the Greens and their bedfellow teals to become extremist economically and socially.

“They are no longer a party of people with shared environmental concerns, but instead have shown a dangerously dark side with support and dog-whistling to violent protests and attempts to use international affairs to dangerously divide Australia and pit race, gender and religion against each other.”

Labor MP Mark Bailey, who saw off a Greens challenge in Miller, said voters were turned off by the federal Greens MPs blocking the Albanese government’s housing reforms. “We saw the biggest Greens campaign ever in Miller, claiming 21,000 door-knocks and on the doors and the phones, ­people were angry that the Greens were not practising what they preached,” Mr Bailey said.

“A lot of people on the doorstep don’t like the Greens blocking housing and playing political games and these are long-time Greens voters.”

He said there had also been local blowback against Griffith Greens MP Mr Chandler-Mather for “backing the CFMEU”.

An LNP source close to the Maiwar campaign said Natasha Winter was a “solid enough” candidate who “hit the basics well” but the biggest factors in the result were Mr Berkman appearing to take the seat for granted, and Labor successfully winning back voters from the Greens.

“The Greens read their own press about how clever they were and Michael Berkman didn’t seem to be campaigning here, he was always somewhere else, trying to expand their footprint on the (electoral) map,” the LNP source said.

“He certainly didn’t campaign like he was concerned. And the Labor Party made a pretty big push to bring people back to them.”

The LNP source said it appeared the Greens’ stance on the Middle East might have harmed their chances in Maiwar, where third-party campaigners were telling voters that the “Greens support terrorism” and urging them to put the Greens last.

Advance spokeswoman Sandra Bourke said the fall in the Greens vote at the Queensland election and in the ACT election was proof that the minor party’s reputation had taken a hit.

The conservative activist group which torpedoed the voice referendum has poured millions of dollars into a campaign to inflict the “maximum possible damage” to the Greens’ brand to prevent the left-wing party from making electoral gains at the federal election.

“There are now two elections in a row where the Greens have gone backwards; we believe this is a combination of the narrative around the Greens brand changing, combined with our national campaign, and some spectacular local grassroots movements,” she said.

“The Queensland election also shows the power the Labor Party has to significantly weaken the influence of the Greens by not delivering them preferences.

“If the Prime Minister is serious about the future of the country, every Labor candidate will put the Greens last.”

Ms Bourke said the goal of the campaign was to “reveal the truth” about the Greens by highlighting the party’s shift away from environmental issues towards “violence, division and internal cultural dysfunction”.