Going early’s a risk but to save seats there was no choice

IT is a gamble to call a January election, pulling punters out of their summer sojourns and back to the ballot box as they prepare kids for school.

But with economic figures likely to get worse before they get better, and the Canberra debate over Tony Abbott’s unpopular budget measures to resume in February, Campbell Newman may not have felt he had a choice.

Faced with consecutive polls showing a double-digit swing against the government, he is fighting to save a swag of seats — including his own, Ashgrove. Ashgrove is the elephant in the room. But if the Premier thinks that if he doesn’t mention it, no one else will, he is mistaken.

Newman holds his Brisbane seat by a margin of just 5.7 per cent and is facing former incumbent Labor MP Kate Jones, who has been campaigning for months.

While he was behind Jones in the polls going into the 2012 campaign, and won, Newman is now carrying his own baggage after three years as a divisive premier and doesn’t have the winds of change that blew Labor out after almost two decades in power.

He looked rattled yesterday when asked about who would be premier if he loses his seat.

Newman refused to rule out parachuting into a safe seat post-election if he loses Ashgrove, and ran out the 2012 line that if he doesn’t hold on then the LNP won’t either.

But the numbers don’t support the argument, with Labor needing an 11 per cent swing on the 2012 results to win government and just over half that to oust Newman. The LNP is going to be dogged by the question and Newman has to take the lead.

Despite the presidential-style campaign, Newman needs to remove the ‘‘me or nothing’’ mantra, and promote government successes and the talent on his frontbench. After all, it is the pugnacious leadership of Newman — with his personal approval rating in negative territory for a year — that often fuelled anger at the government.

The snap election is all about saving as many seats as possible and putting the heat on Labor. Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk has done a commendable job in taking the fight to Newman. But she is not well known and has done little in articulating a vision beyond a few niche policies.

While Newman will be shadowed by the leadership question, Palaszczuk should equally face scrutiny over her failure to shed light on her plans to cut the deficit, state debt and jobless rate.

The LNP has put up a $34 billion privatisation plan, including the leasing of the state’s electricity network, while Labor has no plan but to oppose it.