NSW Labor’s the front-runner: stakes rise in Newspoll

NSW Labor has opened a commanding lead over the Coalition just six months out from the state election, Newspoll finds.

Chris Minns , NSW Labor Leader holds a press conference at Parliament House. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

NSW Labor has opened a commanding lead over the Coalition just six months out from the state election despite Dominic Perrottet recording strong personal ­approval ratings and maintaining preferred premier status over Chris Minns.

A Newspoll, conducted ­exclusively for The Weekend Australian, shows Labor’s primary vote of 40 per cent has risen 6.7 per cent since the 2019 election, while the Coalition’s primary vote has slumped 6.6 per cent to 35 per cent.

With the Coalition having held power for 11 years, half of those surveyed believed it was time to “give someone else a go’’, while only 31 per cent of those surveyed believed the Coalition ­deserved to be re-elected.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor holds a 54-to-46 per cent lead, a 6 per cent swing compared with 2019. If the result was repeated on a uniform basis next March, Labor would be on track to win up to seven seats, leaving it short of the 10 seats it requires for a majority in its own right.

Mr Perrottet, who replaced Gladys Berejiklian as Premier last October, remains popular, while almost one-third of voters are yet to make up their mind about the Opposition Leader who became Labor leader in June last year.

Mr Perrottet recorded a satisfaction rating of 47 per cent compared with 41 per cent dissatisfied and 12 per cent uncommitted.

Forty-two per cent of those surveyed said they were satisfied with Mr Minns performance compared with 27 per cent who were dissatisfied, while 31 per cent were uncommitted.

Mr Perrottet leads Mr Minns as better premier by 39 to 35 per cent, but more than a quarter of voters remain uncommitted.

The slump in support for the government follows Ms Berejiklian’s resignation as premier over an ICAC investigation and a political furore over the attempted ­appointment of former deputy premier John Barilaro to a plum New York trade posting.

But the poll of 1006 NSW voters undertaken between Monday and Thursday was taken before Mr Minns sacked frontbencher Tania Mihailuk on Friday after she used parliamentary privilege to ­accuse a member of her own faction of aiding corrupt ex-MP Eddie Obeid.

Late on Tuesday, Ms Mihailuk launched an extraordinary attack on Canterbury-Bankstown mayor and Labor upper house candidate Khal Asfour, leading Mr Minns to dump her live on radio on Friday.

 

Mr Minns has also been stung by revelations he used rapid visits to Sydney hospital emergency ­departments simply for social media content.

While support for the Greens has lifted 2.4 points to 12 per cent since 2019, the perceived threat of a “teal wave” in NSW appears unlikely.

The primary vote for “others’’, which includes One Nation, independents and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, has fallen 2 per cent to a cumulative 13 per cent.

The poll found only 29 per cent of those surveyed who lived outside Sydney believed the government deserved to be re-elected, compared with 32 per cent who lived in Sydney.

The Perrottet government has endured a torrid few months and will go to the March 25 election with eight Liberal and National MPs retiring.

Mr Barilaro’s appointment as the state’s $500,000-a-year US trade commissioner led to trade minister Stuart Ayres being dumped from the ministry after an independent investigation found he had not been at “arm’s length” from the recruitment process. Mr Barilaro ultimately did not take up the position.

The senior public servant at the centre of Mr Barilaro’s appointment, Amy Brown, was dismissed on Monday after the review found she had inappropriately withheld vital information from other members of an independent selection panel put together to pick candidates for the trade roles.