Gillard recoils from her green partner

JULIA Gillard has chosen to distance herself from the Greens on the eve of her first budget as Prime Minister with the Greens holding the Senate's balance of power from July 1 and having a direct impact on the passage of budget measures.

This poor timing merely illustrates the deeper problem. Gillard's efforts to put more daylight between herself and the Greens is a concession that Labor has got too close to the Greens, either in substance or perception or both.

Such recognition should surprise nobody. This excessive pro-Green alignment has been a strategic failure by Labor since the August election. Gillard, sooner or later, had to adjust.

Indeed, the only surprise is that Gillard waited so long, that she tolerated being played off a break by Greens leader Bob Brown and that she did virtually nothing as Tony Abbott campaigned for eight months on the idea of Labor's submission to Brown while the Labor primary vote headed south.

It is an extraordinary event when a Labor PM is forced into such clumsy ad hoc manoeuvres to tell the world that Labor is a different party with different policies and values from the Greens.

How on earth did it get to this stage? Can you imagine for a moment Gough Whitlam or Bob Hawke or Paul Keating getting into this predicament where Labor, with its proud history, has to differentiate itself from the Greens before the Australian people. It is a truly sad situation.

The polls tell the story of the Labor-Green alliance to this point. It is working for the Greens and it is not working for Labor. Much of the Labor Party simply denies this reality or insists it can be reversed. And maybe it can. Yet there is no denying Labor's confusion and the trend is alarming.

Since inauguration of the alliance the Labor primary vote has fallen from a disappointing 38 per cent at the election to the 32-36 per cent zone, the Coalition has moved ahead of Labor, the Greens have consolidated and Brown has an enhanced national standing. This hardly constitutes brilliant politics by Labor.

Equally unfortunate for Gillard has been the reaction to her considered criticism of the Greens delivered in the Whitlam Oration last week. She has been roundly criticised, notably by the media. Her dilemma is obvious and was highlighted by Abbott and Joe Hockey - Gillard is attacking the Greens yet she has formed a partnership with them.

Is she with the Greens or against them? Or is she simultaneously with them and against them? Whether such political equivocation can work for Labor is a tall order but the origin of the problem is starker than ever - the unnecessary alliance Gillard entered into with the Greens post-election.

The key to Brown's response is that he is hugging Gillard close. He speaks as an alliance partner. So Brown found Gillard's words were "obnoxious, quite insulting and not acceptable" and lamented that she had attacked "her supporters in government". In short, Brown responds as an ally and willing partner who has been indecently mugged. He holds Gillard to the alliance she created and the pledges she made.

The disconnect is apparent. Brown is happy with this partnership yet Gillard is edgy and worried about its impact. Brown's further message for Labor is that criticising the Greens is not the political free-kick that Labor once took for granted. Brown knows that much of the Whitlam Institute speech was written by Gillard. As he says, there is a "deliberation" about her attack. Gillard sought to marginalise the Greens as a "party of protest" with "no tradition of striking the balance required to deliver major reform."

But hang on. Gillard is actually working with the Greens to deliver one of the biggest reforms in Australian history, pricing carbon, a reform she keeps boasting about. These are strange words for Gillard to use given she needs the Greens to strike exactly the required balance so the package passes the parliament.

This speech betrays Gillard's dilemma. Sure, she dismisses the Greens as an inconsequential bunch of protesters in order to establish Labor's ascendancy over them but for her alliance to work she needs the Greens to operate as a party of wisdom and responsibility. Labor is trapped in a diabolical liaison doomed to fluctuate between mutual need and recrimination.

Brown's reply to Gillard drips with his guise as statesmanlike partner. Yes, he is prepared to forgive Gillard her indiscretion after a face-to-face meeting. No, it will not threaten their alliance. Indeed, Brown says he cannot foresee any situation in which the Greens would be so irresponsible as to break this alliance and bring a new instability to Australian politics. Brown even says the Greens' commitment was not just to Gillard but to the Australian people. How noble and honourable are these Greens.

Gillard belatedly seeks to make the pivotal point - that Labor and the Greens have different values. Labor believes in a strong economy, work and economic growth. It reflects the values of "everyday Australians" who do the right thing, love their families and their nation.

You know what Gillard was trying to say but it didn't work. It was too sweeping and too loose. And Brown attacked her for insulting the 1.5 million Australians who voted Green at the last election. The upshot is that Gillard's zigzag play with the Greens is unlikely to help Labor unless it can re-position on a consistent basis. But that's hard when in alliance.

Having been ushered into the tent Brown still operates according to his own rules. Only too happy to pose as Gillard's political partner, the Greens pick and choose when to break from Labor; witness Brown's recent rejection of Labor's proposed corporate tax cut.

With the budget coming, Labor-Greens ties will enter a new phase shaped by economic issues. This should suit Gillard. If she cannot use economic management as a plus in dealing with the Greens then Labor's hopes are lost.

The gulf on economic policy between Labor and Greens is substantial. With Wayne Swan's budget geared to the return-to-surplus strategy, Brown is rattling his sabre about terrible spending cuts that might hurt the Aussie battler when corporates are being given a break. Get ready for Green economic populism that Brown will market with his usual skill.

In the interim Labor needs to unscramble its brain and deal with the Greens more from a position of strength - the only basis for successful government.