GFC's emissions effect at an end

THE dampening impact of the global financial crisis on world carbon dioxide emissions has been short-lived, according to a survey.

THE dampening impact of the global financial crisis on world carbon dioxide emissions has been short-lived, according to an annual survey published today by the scientific journal Nature.

The report estimated global carbon dioxide emissions increased by a record 5.9 per cent last year because of strong emissions growth in emerging economies and a return to emissions growth in the developed world.

A second paper in Nature, also published today, gives new evidence of a link between human CO2 emissions and global warming. The paper says at least 74 per cent of the climate warming observed since the mid-20th century was extremely likely to be caused by human activities.

The first study found contributions to global emissions growth last year were largest from China, the US, India, the Russian Federation and the EU, with a continuously growing global share from emerging economies, a statement issued by report author, the Global Carbon Project, said.

Coal burning was at the heart of the growth in fossil fuel and cement emissions accounting for 52 per cent of the total growth.

CSIRO researcher and Global Carbon Project executive director Pep Canadell said the atmospheric concentration of CO2 last year rose to 389.6 parts per million, the highest recorded in at least the last 800,000 years.

The report co-author, CSIRO's Mike Raupach, said last year's figures were the highest annual growth recorded, and the highest annual growth rate since 2003.

The international science team preparing the analysis tracked emissions growth in tandem with significant economic events since 1960. "The analysis suggests in times of crisis, countries maintain economic output by supporting less-energy intensive activities," Dr Raupach said. "These burst-like dynamics are related to easing of energy prices, government investment to stimulate economic recovery, and the effect of a decade of high economic growth in the developing world which propagated into a rapid global, post-GFC return to high emissions."

Estimates of carbon emissions in 2009 and last year in the Carbon Project report are based on data from the energy company BP.

The findings on global warming being caused by human activities are based on an assessment of the Earth's energy balance rather than computer climate models as have been used in the past, lifting confidence in the result.