Former Army chief’s Afghanistan warning as troops withdraw

As Australia and the US withdraw, Peter Leahy says ‘it’s time we left’, but a terror base could rise again.

An Australian Army soldier from Special Operations Task Group maintains a watch over the valley below during a counter-insurgency operation in Uruzgan province, Afghanistan. Picture: Department of Defence

Former chief of Army Peter Leahy has argued that “the strategy was missing” in the war in Afghanistan and warned a terror base could again grow under the Taliban and fan extremist movements in the region, including the Philippines and parts of Indonesia.

Professor Leahy said the initial decision to commit to the conflict following the 9/11 terrorist attacks to “get Osama bin Laden, to get al-Qaeda, to make sure that Afghanistan didn’t become a haven for terror operations” was correct.

“But then we lost focus. We went off to Iraq in 2003. And then we had a series of changing strategies of missions. Just look at the names of the task forces that we sent there, training, mentoring, reconstruction, support and so on,” he told Sky News.

“There really wasn’t this clear definition of a strategy, what the end state was going to be. Indeed, I’ve seen some commentators talking about the strategy being not to lose rather to win. So I think we really should be asking questions of ourselves as we perhaps look for conflicts in the future: what is our end state, what are we going there for, what is the mission, what are our interests and most importantly what does victory look like?

“I don’t think we have clear answers for them.”

Presence ‘worthwhile’

However, Professor Leahy also said that he thought the Australian presence in Afghanistan was worthwhile.

“We worked to provide schools and hospitals to work with roads to give the people some hope for the future and, yes, I think it was worth it for that. The soldiers, sailors and aviators have done a magnificent job.”

Director of National Security Institute, Peter Leahy. Picture: Nikki Short

Professor Leahy, who is the director of the national security institute at the University of Canberra, said there was “no choice at all” but for Australia to end its commitment in Afghanistan, noting that Tony Abbott had told troops in Afghanistan back in 2013 that the war was ending.

Speaking on his surprise visit to the war torn nation in October of that year, the then prime minister said that Australia’s “longest war is ending … not with victory, not with defeat, but with, we hope, an Afghanistan that is better for our presence here.”

‘It’s a pity that it’s ended this way’

Professor Leahy also noted that the conflict had dragged on. “The President of the Americans said that four Presidents had been involved in this. And in the Australian case, I count seven Prime Ministers,” he said.

“It’s time that we left Afghanistan … It’s a pity that it’s ended this way … Let’s hope that over the next few months that the peace talks really produce something significant for the people of Afghanistan.”

Professor Leahy warned of potential “dangers” in Afghanistan, arguing that in the ongoing peace talks the Taliban “really haven’t said that they’re going to clearly stop a terror base there.”

Australian soldiers drive in convoy in long-range patrol vehicles across an Afghanistan desert in northern Uruzgan province. Picture: Department of Defence

‘I fear for the future’

“They haven’t said that they’ll allow human rights. And in the classic phrase they haven’t confirmed that they’ll let little girls go to school. So in some ways I fear for the future of Afghanistan.”

Professor Leahy said there was a real potential for the influence of the Taliban to grow, saying they had shown “strategic patience” and had “outlasted the United States and the Coalition.”

“They have I think clear views of the sort of nation they want it to be. And they do want it to be based on Islamic values. They have I think got a sense of confidence. They have seen off the United States and the Coalition.”

Professor Leahy said this could lend confidence to other movements in Northern Africa, the Philippines and parts of Indonesia.

“I think that this will be a bolster to their confidence and we need to be very careful about what we do and how we protect ourselves from perhaps an evolving terrorist group.”

A soldier from Australia’s Special Operations Task Group hones his marksmanship on the range at Multinational Base Tarin Kowt in Uruzgan province, southern Afghanistan. Picture: Department of Defence