Flatlining cuts make 2030 emissions target a tall order

Reaching 2030 emission reduction targets presents a ‘major challenge’ in the wake of fresh figures revealing the cuts to greenhouse gases have been ‘flatlining’ over recent years, experts say.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Picture: NewsWire / Lachie Millard

Reaching Australia’s 43 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030 presents the government with a “major challenge” in the wake of figures revealing cuts to greenhouse gases have been “flatlining” over recent years.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen on Friday released the latest quarterly update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, which showed that in the year to March, 2.7 million fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions were recorded than the year before, representing a 0.6 per cent decrease.

In the 12 months to March, emissions were estimated at 440.2 million tonnes, with electricity emissions down 1.7 per cent, fugitive emissions down 1.7 per cent and agriculture emissions down 0.7 per cent.

There was an increase in transport emissions of 2.6 per cent, with the Climate Change Department saying it reflected the “continuing recovery from Covid-related movement restrictions”.

Despite the government ­acknowledging emissions in the March 2024 quarter were impacted by “warmer than average temperatures leading to increased electricity demand”, Mr Bowen said the report showed Australia was on track to achieve its Paris target of a 43 per cent emissions reduction on 2005 ­levels by 2030.

However, Grattan Institute energy program director Tony Wood said the figures demonstrated Australia “had to do a whole lot better” in cutting emissions and that it would be “a challenge” to reach the 2030 objective.

The report showed that, in the year to March, Australia’s overall emissions were estimated to be running at 28.2 per cent below the levels recorded in the year to June 2005 – still well below the 43 per cent reduction required by the end of the decade.

“These numbers have flatlined and we’re going to have to do a whole lot better for the next five years if we’re going to get to 43 per cent by 2030,” Mr Wood said. “We’re going to (have to) pick up our act, because those emissions now, they going down by three or four million tonnes a year.

“They (have) got to go down (by) 15 million tonnes every year. Now, is that possible? Maybe. ­Because … we haven’t yet seen any significant contribution from the areas where government (has) announced policies which are the safeguard mechanism … and the vehicle emission ­standard.”

The Australian Industry Group’s director of climate change and energy, Tennant Reed, said he thought Australia would come close to achieving the target of reducing emissions by 43 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 once new policies kicked in.

“The things that need to happen for the 43 per cent target to be met have been clear for a while and the most obvious is the build out of all the new energy ­infrastructure to allow for the retirement of ageing coal-fired power plants,” he said. “Beyond that, the safeguard mechanism will incentivise and require a large amount of emissions reductions.

“I reckon when the government puts out its next set of emissions projections … (they) will say we are on track.”

But opposition climate change and energy spokesman, Ted O’Brien said that it was clear from the emission reduction figures released this week that “the 43 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030 won’t be delivered”.

“When we left office, emissions were around 29 per cent below 2005 levels,” he said. “Labor spent a decade beating up the Coalition on climate change, despite the Coalition meeting and beating our targets,” he said.

Mr Bowen said that latest ­report showed that the government’s “reliable renewables plan is working”.

“The Albanese government is embracing the economic opportunities of a net-zero economy while making a practical difference to reduce emissions, including through a bolstered safeguard mechanism and new vehicle ­efficiency standard,” he said.

The new figures come amid concerns over the rollout of ­renewable energy, with a study by the Australian National Uni­versity released earlier this year showing a slowdown in investments in renewable energy plants and a shrinking in financial ­approvals for new solar farms.

However, the government has pointed to initiatives such as the $1bn Solar Sunshot program – which was announced under the flagship Future Made in Australia banner – as helping to “build ­resilience into Australia’s renewable energy supply chains”.

Anthony Albanese also ­revealed on Friday the contentious Solar Sunshot program could now begin to be administered by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, which was charged with administering two rounds of funding.

These included $500m to support solar panel manufacturing in Australia and $50m to support solar PV manufacturing studies.

“Australia can do what other countries cannot,” the Prime Minister said. “We have that combination of resources, skills, workers, space and sunlight to co-locate those links in the value chain.”

While one in three Australian households have solar – the highest take-up in the world – the government is concerned that only 1 per cent of those solar panels are made in Australia.