Federal results show Qld deputy Jackie Trad treading fine line

Queensland Deputy Premier Jackie Trad may be ousted by Greens at next year’s state election.

Federal election returns don’t augur well for Queensland Deputy Premier Jackie Trad.

Queensland Deputy Premier Jackie Trad is in danger of being ousted by the Greens from parliament if the weekend’s federal voting trends are replicated at next year’s state election.

The Treasurer and leader of Queensland Labor’s dominant Left faction holds the inner-city seat of South Brisbane on a 3.6 per cent margin, secured only after the Liberal National Party preferenced Labor ahead of the Greens at the 2017 state election.

But the LNP state executive announced earlier this year that it would put Ms Trad last on its how-to-vote cards in a controversial move that immediately boosted the chances of the Greens to win its second state seat at next year’s October poll.

A decade-long growth in support for the Green’s in Ms Trad’s seat was again evident in the results in federal polling booths in the federal Labor-held electorate of Griffith — that takes in the South Brisbane seat — and which saw a 7.20 per cent swing to the environmental party, the biggest in Australia.

In the federal booths within Ms Trad’s seat, which also elected Brisbane’s first Greens councillor in 2016, there were swings of up to 15 per cent to the Greens.

The Greens’ primary vote was the highest of any party in several of South Brisbane’s largest federal booths.

The Greens’ Griffith candidate, Max Chandler-Mather, said an extrapolation of the federal results in the booths in South Brisbane put the Greens’ nominal primary vote across Ms Trad’s seat at 35 per cent, with the Liberals on 32 per cent and Labor on 30 per cent.

“It is clear South Brisbane is responding to a message of hope from the Greens, not only in giving people the things they need to lead a good life, but also tackling climate change in a way that ensures no worker is left behind,’’ he said.

“We are incredibly excited about our prospects in the coming council and state elections, with our grassroots movement growing every year.’’

Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams said an analysis of the federal voting trends in South Brisbane showed that Ms Trad would lose her seat.

“On the federal voting figures, she would be defeated,’’ he said.

“The decision of the LNP to preference against her should be enough to end her career; it would only add to the Greens’ vote which should continue to increase as antipathy towards the Adani mine intensifies in South Brisbane.”

Dr Williams said Ms Trad would need a “game-changer” to save her seat, pointing to rumours that she continues to harbour ambitions to be premier. “If she is premier that would give her some hope of holding on to the seat,’’ he said.