Federal election 2022: The Coalition pitch - ‘Experience v Labor’s lack of vision’

Scott Morrison’s re-election pitch is anchored around the Coalition’s economic and pandemic management, keeping Australians safe from increasing threats in the Indo-Pacific and personal attacks on Anthony Albanese.

Pushing for a fourth-term in government, the Coalition election campaign will be dominated by attacks on Mr Albanese’s character and convincing voters that Labor can’t be trusted on the economy, national security and post-pandemic recovery.

With both sides predicting a bruising and deeply personal campaign, Mr Morrison will paint Mr Albanese as the most “left-wing Labor leader since Gough Whitlam” and accuse the Opposition Leader of trying to steal the election with a small-target platform.

In response to waning personal popularity, which contrasts with public sentiment before the 2019 election win, Mr Morrison will warn voters that Mr Albanese wants to “skate off to an election without any scrutiny”. Coalition campaign headquarters will ­amplify the choice between Mr Morrison’s experience and the claim that Mr ­Albanese lacks vision.

The Liberals and Nationals will effectively run three campaigns in inner-city, outer-suburban and ­regional electorates as they try to sandbag seats and stem expected losses to Labor and Climate 200 independents.

After amassing $1 trillion in gross debt during the pandemic supporting Australians via JobKeeper and Covid-19 disaster payments, increased health spending and business stimulus packages, Mr Morrison and Josh Frydenberg will promote their efforts to keep people in work and employers’ afloat.

Despite unemployment heading below 4 per cent for the first time in almost 50 years, the government is struggling to cut through with its jobs recovery pitch as inflationary pressures drive up the cost of food, petrol and rent.

Scott Morrison called the federal election for May 21, launching a come-from-behind battle to stay in power after three years rocked by floods, bushfires and the Covid-19 pandemic.

In addition to stagnant wages growth, the Reserve Bank of Australia has warned that record low interest rates will begin rising within months. The Coalition, which will accuse Mr Albanese of planning “secret tax hikes”, held back major housing announcements in last month’s budget to rollout during the campaign and compete for votes with Labor over aspirational families and first-home buyers.

The Coalition, which softened its climate change positions after attacking Bill Shorten during the 2019 campaign over his emissions-reduction and electric-vehicles ambitions, has adopted a net-zero emissions by 2050 target to combat cashed-up Climate 200 independents.

With frontline essential services, job security and other domestic issues dominating the list of voter priorities, the government will attempt to sell its national ­security and defence agenda, ­including the AUKUS strategic pact with the US and Britain, stronger foreign interference laws and increased funding for security agencies.

The Coalition and Labor will also clash over their reform agendas around modern manufacturing, skills, training and industrial relations.

Coalition strategists will not waste critical resources in seats they will lose. This requires a ruthless assessment of at-risk seats, ­including Boothby in South Australia and Reid in NSW, and what electorates are winnable or potential gains.

High votes for minor parties, in protest over the handling of the pandemic, means the Coalition and Labor will be forced to win enough of the preference flow to secure the edge in a tight result. Neither side expects uniform national swings, with votes likely to fragment across states and territories, and between regional and urban areas.