Factional deal puts ALP in Queensland Senate box seat

Labor has only two candidates nominating for its Queensland Senate ticket at the next federal election, with a backroom deal splitting the winnable spots between Left and Right factions.

Labor senator Anthony Chisholm. Picture: Sean Davey

Labor has only two candidates nominating for its Queensland Senate ticket at the next federal election, with a backroom deal splitting the winnable spots between sitting senators from the Left and Right factions.

Frontbench senator Murray Watt, from the Left, will now lead Labor’s Senate campaign with Senator Anthony Chisholm, from the Right, on a ticket that will have to be endorsed at state ­conference from June 4-6 after nominations closed this week.

The party’s hopes of retaining its two Queensland Senate seats were given a significant boost in recent polls, easing fears from some in the party over whether Senator Chisholm — a former state secretary and ALP powerbroker — will retain his seat.

At the last election, in 2019, the LNP secured three of Queensland’s Senate seats up for grabs, with Labor winning one alongside One Nation and the Greens.

Many Labor insiders had almost written off their hope of retaining the two seats at the next federal election — due to be held within a year — after the party’s disastrous 2019 result.

But a fightback illustrated by recent polls has led to increased optimism within the party of both its senators being returned.

Analysis of the past four half-Senate elections by The Weekend Australian shows that Labor’s Senate primary vote needs to be above 27 per cent for the party to win both its Senate spots.

For a third senator to be elected — a result not seen in Queensland since the 2007 “Rudd-slide” — the party would need to win more than 39 per cent of the ­primary vote. In 2019, the primary vote of 22.57 in the state meant only one senator was elected.

The analysis also shows that the Senate vote typically sits about 4 per cent below the lower house vote. Last month’s Newspoll had Labor’s primary vote for the lower house at 35 per cent in Queensland.

If the result were to be replicated at the election, both Senator Watt and Senator Chisholm would likely be returned.

“Senators Murray Watt and Anthony Chisholm have been taking up the fight to the LNP in Canberra and are fierce advocates for Queensland jobs, from the Cape to Coolangatta,” ALP state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell said in a statement.

Senator Watt and Senator Chisholm have told colleagues they are confident of re-election, and several sources said they were buoyed by the recent polls. However, some believe the party still faces an uphill battle at the ballot box despite Anthony Albanese taking over from Bill Shorten.

“I’m not convinced we get a second Senate spot,” one Labor insider said. “I don’t see the results there last time as a correction, I see them as a shift.”

The Labor source criticised the fact that both of the winnable ­Senate seats would be filled by men, despite the party advocating for affirmative action.

The order of the Labor ticket comes a week after a bruising ­tussle between the Coalition’s Queensland senators James McGrath and Amanda Stoker over the No 1 and No 3 positions on the ticket.

Under a Coalition agreement, the Nationals hold the No 2 spot, meaning Matt Canavan’s position on the ballot is assured.

Senator Stoker, the Assistant Minister for Women, is now fighting for her political career after being relegated to the third spot and will likely face off against Pauline Hanson for a Senate seat.

The only time the LNP, which merged in 2008, or Coalition parties did not win three Senate seats in Queensland was in 1998, when the Nationals lost to One Nation.