Eliminating coronavirus is not viable option for Scott Morrison

Premiers urged to unite on Australia’s suppression strategy, with warnings eradication will damage the economy and employment.

Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says an eradication strategy is ‘worthy of consideration’. Picture: Wayne Taylor

State premiers are being urged to reject an elimination strategy for coronavirus, with Scott Morrison and leading business groups warning the move would double unemployment and wreck the economy.

After Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said elimination was “worthy of consideration”, business leaders backed by the Morrison government de­mand­ed­ the states hold the line on Australia’s aggressive suppres­sion strategy, arguing the nation had to learn to live with corona­virus while there was no vaccine.

The Prime Minister, who has conceded the lockdown of Greater Melbourne was necessary given the size of the outbreaks, warned that any pivot to an elimin­ation strategy would double­ unemployment.

A nationwide lockdown “cure” would cause more harm than good, Mr Morrison said, noting that elimination would not have worked in Victoria because cases leaked out from hotel quarantine.

Australia, which has an effect­ive unemployment rate of 13.3 per cent, had all but eradicated community transmission of the ­virus until the Victorian government’s hotel quarantine bungle.

“You don’t just shut the whole country down. That is not sustainable,” the Prime Minister told ­Triple M Melbourne.

“There’d be doubling unemployment, potentially, and even worse. The cure would be worse than what arguably wouldn’t be delivered anyway, because as we’ve seen with the outbreak in Victoria, it came from a breach of quarantine.

“The right strategy is one we’ve all been pursuing together.”

Australia has pursued a suppress­ion strategy, endorsed by the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, with the knowledge that it would lead to periods of elimination in parts of the country. “True elimination in Australia is unrealistic in the absenc­e of a vaccine,” a Department of Health spokesman said.

“It is impossible to completely seal the borders of any country — even an island continent such as Australia — and nor should we try to. Returning travellers, freight vessels and associated crews will continue to come from countries with widespread transmission.”

Lockdowns were consistent with the suppression approach, the department said, but were decisions for each state and territory.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said suppression was the only option for her state, especially given its size, and elimination was improbable; while Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk maintained suppression was “national cabinet’s position and ours”.

“Whilst we would all love to adopt a policy of elimination, it’s I think unrealistic to assume we would get there,” Ms Berejiklian said. “Suppression is the best strategy but that’s not going to be delivered­ perfectly either because it relies on good will and … on everyone doing the right thing.”

Neither West Australian Prem­ier Mark McGowan nor Tasmania’s Peter Gutwein said whether they would consider an eradication strategy instead of suppression, as there were no active coronavirus cases in those states. South Australian Premier Steven Marshall and Northern Territ­ory Chief Minister Michael Gunner said the states and territor­ies had agreed to focus on suppressing COVID-19.

“Only a vaccine can guarantee eradication, and we don’t have that yet,” Mr Gunner said. “Until that happens, this is our life. This is our new normal.”

The Business Council of Aust­ralia, Australian Industry Group and Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry were unanimous in backing a suppression strategy to avoid “killing jobs”.

They rejected closing Australia off to the rest of the world while work on a vaccine was under way, saying instead that the states should learn from mistakes to better­ control future outbreaks.

“We would urge all the states to stay in the national tent and maintain the unified approach along the lines agreed by the natio­nal cabinet,” said Ai Group chief executive Innes Willox.

“The Victorian experience should not be seen as a reason to switch to an elimination strategy that would tank the economy.”

ACCI’s chief executive James Pearson said the suppression approach­ was working here and it would be dangerous to change tactics. “There’s been a failure to execute the plan properly in one part of the country, which is requirin­g a very significant response,” he said. “That doesn’t mean that targeted, proportionate, forens­ic responses to the inevit­able breakouts when they occur isn’t the right way.”

BCA chief executive Jennifer Westacott called for nationally consistent standards for managing local outbreaks “so that everyone knows the rules” .

While Ms Berejiklian has pushed back against lockdowns, saying her state cannot afford to lockdown and reopen every time there was an outbreak, states are not ruling out using the method as a measure of last resort.

Australian Medical Associa­tion president Tony Bartone said the nation had gone “too fast in returning­ to a hopeful pre-COVID normal without really modifying our behaviour long-term”, as concerns rise that complacen­cy has crept in.

Dr Bartone said a debate on whether the country should adopt an elimination strategy could be held once community transmission cases in Victoria and NSW were controlled.

He said lockdowns were the “only sensible and safe course of action” when there were outbreaks and the community was not adhering to advice, including by socially distancing.

“There’s no point having an elimination strategy if you don’t have the community behind you,” Dr Bartone said.

“That would require significantly more pain when you shut down construction, close all business bar the really essential ones, when you limit all movements in the community bar the essential ones. That’s going to require enormous support and buy-in from the community.

“It’s bewildering that people think this is already all over. This is here for a long time to come. We all need to realise that, it’s not time to party just yet or any time soon.”