Election 2025: Senate ‘toxic’ for Dutton, friendlier for Albanese, says Glenn Druery

The post-election Senate will be friendlier to a re-elected Anthony Albanese and ‘toxic’ for a Dutton government, Glenn Druery has predicted.

Preference whisperer Glenn Druery.

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The post-election Senate will be friendlier to a re-elected Anthony Albanese and “toxic” for a Dutton government, preference whisperer Glenn Druery has predicted.

Mr Druery believes Labor will gain a Senate seat in Queensland on May 3 and this will come at the expense of the right, creating a contest for the final Queensland Senate spot between the Liberal National Party, Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, Liberal defector Gerard Rennick’s People First, Malcolm Roberts from Pauline Hanson One Nation and Family First.

He said the Legalise Cannabis Party or Australia’s Voice could also win that last Queensland Senate spot.

“There is potential for this scenario in every other state except perhaps Tasmania where the Jacqui Lambie Network is very likely to win the third spot from the Libs,” he said.

Mr Druery arrived on Australia’s political scene at the NSW election in 1999 when he used what became known as a preference harvesting strategy to put three people from micro-parties into the state parliament.

He is now chief of staff for West Australian senator Fatima Payman, who was elected for Labor but fell out with the party and has since created her own called Australia’s Voice. Senator Payman swept into parliament in 2022 as WA voters rewarded Labor for the McGowan government’s pandemic strategies.

The sentiment against the Liberals was so strong at the federal election in 2022 that the Coalition was left with no lower house seats in metropolitan Perth.

There are expectations that Senator Payman will struggle to be elected in her own right but Mr Druery says she could be the “bolter” to take WA’s final Senate spot in a contest with the Liberal Party and minor parties including Legalise Cannabis.

“In WA, Labor will get two Senate spots, the Greens will get one and the Liberals will get two, but who will get that final Senate spot?” Mr Druery said. “The Liberals should be a strong chance but look how horribly they did at the recent state election.”

There was an 11.9 per cent two-party-preferred swing against the Cook Labor government at the March 8 state election. However, two thirds of it went to parties other than the Liberals. The Liberals won only seven of a possible 59 lower house seats in WA. Labor won 46.

“State elections don’t necessarily translate into federal elections, but it’s a pretty good guide. And the Libs could not even rise 10 seats in the lower house in WA in the very recent state election,” Mr Druery said.

He said the draw was crucial for minor parties. For example, David Leyonhjelm’s name was in first position on the ticket in 2013 and he was elected to the Senate for the Liberal Democratic Party with 9.5 per cent of the vote.

Mr Druery predicted the Senate result in Victoria was not going to be great for Labor. However, he still believed that the make-up of the new Senate overall would give Labor one extra.

“What it means is that if Mr Albanese wins, the Senate is going to be better for him,” he said.

“If Mr Dutton wins, the Senate will be a nightmare for him. Labor and the Greens don’t back him so Mr Dutton will likely need every other crossbencher.”