Election 2025: Peter Dutton’s seat under threat from Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots preference decision

Clive Palmer says his decision to put Peter Dutton’s MPs last on his Trumpet of Patriots how-to-vote cards could threaten about 20 marginal Coalition seats.

Australian businessman Clive Palmer and the leader of the Trumpet of Patriots party Suellen Wrightson at their federal election campaign launch on the Sunshine Coast last week. Picture: Getty Images

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Clive Palmer says his decision to put Peter Dutton’s MPs last on his Trumpet of Patriots how-to-vote cards could threaten about 20 marginal Coalition seats, including the Opposition Leader’s own Brisbane electorate.

The billionaire is resisting pressure from Liberal National Party heavyweights – including former LNP president Bruce McIver, a close friend – to reverse his move to preference all sitting Labor and Coalition MPs last.

“The Liberal Party hasn’t differentiated itself significantly from the Labor Party in our view. Peter Dutton hasn’t announced any really significant policy initiatives,” Mr Palmer said.

“I’ve had an experience of about 40 years in the Liberal Party, and I was the National Party spokesman at one stage, and a life member of both parties. So I’ve observed that Coalition members make promises in an election and never carry them out in office, which I don’t think is a good thing.”

Mr Palmer’s preferencing decision is a major shift from his United Australia Party’s 2022 strategy, which saw the UAP put Coalition candidates second on how-to-vote cards.

At the last federal election, preferences from the UAP and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation helped Mr Dutton withstand a 2.94 per cent swing against him to narrowly hold his seat of Dickson by 1.7 per cent over Labor’s Ali France, on a two-party-preferred basis.

Senator Ralph Babet, Mr Palmer and Ms Wrightson last week. Picture: Getty Images

Mr Palmer’s UAP candidate Alina Ward – who put Mr Dutton second on her how-to-vote card – secured 2.74 per cent of the vote, of which 54 per cent flowed back to him in 2022.

After The Australian revealed on Monday that Pauline Hanson was refusing to repay the ­Coalition for preferencing One Nation in key battleground seats, including 18 of Queensland’s 30 seats, Senator Hanson changed her mind and ordered reprinting of how-to-vote cards.

One Nation will now put ­Coalition candidates second in key seats, including Dickson.

In 2022, PHON won 5.36 per cent of the primary vote in Dickson, and 70 per cent of those votes flowed to Mr Dutton when preferences were distributed.

Mr Palmer – a former federal MP for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax under his eponymous Palmer United Party banner – said the Coalition held nearly 20 seats on a margin of less than 4  per cent. At the last federal election, the UAP attracted 4.12 per cent of the national primary vote in the House of Representatives.

He said the decision to put sitting Coalition MPs last on Trumpet of Patriots how-to-vote cards could make it more difficult for those politicians to hold on to their marginal seats.

“(Peter Dutton) has always talked about his great career as a policeman. He might be getting an opportunity to re-enact it … he might have to go back to the beat,” Mr Palmer said.