Election 2025: Liberals confident in Kooyong after Monique Ryan campaign derailed

The Liberal Party is growing in confidence it can win back Kooyong in Melbourne after Monique Ryan’s campaign was derailed by her husband.

Monique Ryan with supporters in Kooyong.

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The Liberal Party is growing in confidence that it can win back the Victorian teal seat of Kooyong as incumbent Monique Ryan is being smashed by voters over her husband’s decision to take a sign promoting his wife’s opponent.

Senior Liberals are privately saying they believe they will win the seat as polling and on-the-ground campaigning has shown their candidate, Amelia Hamer, is close to defeating Dr Ryan.

Dr Ryan is facing rare criticism on her social media feeds from people venting over her husband Peter Jordan’s decision to take Ms Hamer’s election poster, only to be videoed by a Liberal supporter as Mr Jordan wandered down a footpath with it.

He initially refused to return it but caved in after a heated exchange, seriously embarrassing Dr Ryan and damaging her campaign. Dr Ryan’s peak claim for three years is that she has been returning integrity to politics.

But the integrity breach by her husband sparked a social media pile-on from opponents – no doubt many Liberals – who on Friday were still attacking Mr Jordan and the MP.

The teals have been saturating social media – especially Facebook – with posts and paid advertising, which often comes up at the top of the feed for Kooyong voters.

“I think she is going to win,’’ a senior Liberal forecast this week.

Another senior Liberal said there had been a momentum shift this week after it was revealed Mr Jordan had taken the sign.

“People hate that sort of thing and the bingo moment for us was the video,’’ another Liberal said. “It was a minor issue that blew up with the pictures.”

Dr Ryan holds the seat with a margin of 2.2 per cent versus the Liberals after a redistribution that led to the neighbouring seat of Higgins being swallowed up. Kooyong is an inner-eastern Melbourne seat that includes the well-heeled suburbs of Hawthorn, Camberwell, Toorak, Armadale and Balwyn North.

Labor and the Greens are contesting Kooyong and the group Vote Climate is campaigning in key areas in the seat, including the Haines Street precinct in Hawthorn. The campaign optics are considerably different to the last election, with fewer large billboard signs and a greater focus on social media and on-the-ground campaigning.

The corflute wars, where signs are placed on the fences of sympathetic homeowners, are probably being won overall by the Ryan camp but there are geographical advantages for different candidates. Ms Hamer has an advantage in the Auburn Village area and the Liberals have put up a strategic billboard on the nearby Tower Hotel, questioning the teal’s voting record.

The wild card in the seat is ­likely to be how younger voters cast their ballots. Younger voters tend to engage less with politics and often ignore mainstream media coverage, leaving them more susceptible to voting on ­social media advertising and progressive issues.

Dr Ryan has tried to turn the electorate further to the left, her website promoting climate action first and then a pledge to clean up politics and reform housing.

One of the main challenges facing Dr Ryan is the perception that independents struggle to get things done, having to work outside the major party system.

The other potential challenge is the poor brand reputation of Labor in Victoria, in large part due to the state government. This could lead to fewer left preferences finding their way back to Dr Ryan, robbing her of crucial votes. The Liberal Party is even more confident of polling well in the bayside seat of Goldstein, held by teal Zoe Daniel, with a margin of 3.3 per cent versus the Liberal Party.