Election 2025: Liberal dreams fading in Victoria

Peter Dutton’s hopes that Victoria would power him to The Lodge looking less likely as Liberals warn of limited gains.

Victorian teal MP Zoe Daniel. Picture: Martin Ollman / The Australian

You can now listen to The Australian's articles. Give us your feedback.

You can now listen to The Australian's articles.

Liberal dreams of a Labor rout in Victoria providing Peter Dutton with a pathway to victory

are fading with state MPs and party figures now believing federal opposition gains are likely to be limited to between two and four seats.

Multiple Liberal state politicians have told The Australian while they remain hopeful of a late surge delivering more Victorian seats, the prevailing view within the party was Mr Dutton was expected to pick up a maximum of four.

The Liberal MPs and Victorian political figures agreed the marginal Labor-held seats of Chisholm and Aston in Melbourne’s outer east were the most likely to fall to Mr Dutton.

The Australian Electoral Commission puts Labor’s margin in Chisholm at 3.33 per cent and the traditional Liberal seat of Aston at 3.57 per cent. Party strategists hope voter anger at Labor Premier Jacinta Allan will help get them over the line in both on May 3.

“The rest is really unclear. It’s not as strong out there as it was around Christmas,’’ a Liberal said.

The emerging concerns among Victorian Liberals was supported by Newspoll data published by The Australian on Tuesday showing the expected anti-Labor swing had shrunk to below two per cent, further evidence that without a late development the Coalition is going to enjoy only limited wins in the state dominated by Labor at both a federal and state level.

McEwen, which covers a vast swathe of Melbourne northern fringes and parts of regional Victoria, remains a possible gain for Liberals, sources have told The Australian. The AEC puts Labor’s margin in this seat at 3.82 per cent. Liberal sources say Mr Dutton’s 25c a litre petrol tax saving promise has played well in this large electorate.

Liberal MPs are divided on whether their federal colleague, Tim Wilson, can win back Goldstein from teal independent Zoe Daniel, with one telling The Australian “Tim was looking strong” while another said “we can’t count on it”.

The AEC puts Ms Daniel’s margin over Mr Wilson in the traditional Liberal heartland seat at 1.80 per cent. Early election campaign polling suggested Mr Wilson was favoured to win back the seat he lost in 2022, but Ms Daniel has spent well over $1m on the campaign with Climate 200 pumping in almost $500,000 in donations.

There is increasing doubt among Liberals that Amelia Hamer can unseat teal Monique Ryan to win back Kooyong, with one state MP saying the “rental saga has struck deeper than first thought” and cost her support among younger voters. While Ms Hamer has pitched herself as a renter, it was revealed last week that she also owned two investment properties.

A senior Liberal said Dr Ryan had had a “shocking campaign” but it was unclear whether it would translate to a defeat.

Kooyong is the least likely of the two Melbourne teal seats to fall but there is some optimism among Liberal campaigners that it could still be won back. The margin is just 2.52 per cent.

Senior Liberal sources said the instability in the United States had been the defining factor in the first half of the campaign, dousing expectations of a large number of Labor seats falling in Victoria.

One Labor-held seat that some Liberals now believe has entered into surprise contention is the electorate of Bruce, which borders Chisholm and Aston, in Melbourne’s outer southeast taking in the booming suburbs Cranbourne North, Narre Warren South, Berwick and Narre Warren North. Labor’s margin is 5.31 per cent.

“Bruce is definitely shaping as an outlier,” one Liberal told The Australian. “Campaigners have picked strong support out there, so don’t be surprised if this moves.”