Election 2025: Labor’s unpopular super impost lifts Liberal candidates

Close to 70 per cent of voters in marginal seats are against Labor’s plan for unrealised capital gains tax, according to a new poll.

Goldstein Liberal candidate Tim Wilson. Picture: Brendan Beckett

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Close to 70 per cent of voters in marginal seats are against Labor’s plan for unrealised capital gains tax, according to a new poll, giving the Coalition an edge in the hotly contested electorates of Wentworth in Sydney and Goldstein in Melbourne.

Intelligent Dialogue, a new independent artificial intelligence polling technology that has not been commissioned by any political party, surveyed thousands of people using mobile phones and asked, “Do you support Labor’s planned tax on unrealised capital gains that is supported by the Greens and many independents?”

In the affluent electorate of Goldstein, where the Liberal Party’s Tim Wilson is attempting to regain the seat from teal MP Zoe Daniel, Intelligent Dialogue records 68 per cent of voters do not support Labor’s unrealised capital gains tax, while 13 per cent said they didn’t know about it and 16 per cent said they supported it.

“Labor’s unrealised capital gains tax is universally unpopular on all demographics,” Intelligent Dialogue founder David Vaughan said. “Our polling shows that the election is going to be mighty close, closer than what pundits are saying.”

In the Sydney seat of Wentworth, where the Liberal Party’s Ro Knox is trying to beat the incumbent teal Allegra Spender, Intelligent Dialogue records 60 per cent of voters are against the Albanese government’s unrealised capital gains tax.

While both the teals are against unrealised capital gains tax, Mr Vaughan said the Liberal vote had increased in these electorates and tipped the result in favour of the challenger.

In Goldstein, Mr Wilson told The Australian voters were not believing the teals were doing enough to stop the tax.

“This morning a voter in Hampton told me that when it was first proposed they contacted their teal MP’s office and were told she was more interested in how the revenue would be spent than opposing the tax,” Mr Wilson said.

“Voters have concluded any opposition from the teals is calculated positioning and they won’t fight it.”

Anthony Albanese wants to introduce a 30 per cent unrealised capital gains tax on superannuation funds of $3m or more without indexation.

The independent Parliamentary Budget Office figures show such a tax would bring in $40bn – starting off at $300m in the first year before rising to nearly $7bn a year within the first 10 years.

Without a majority, Labor would have to bargain with the Greens who support unrealised capital gains tax but want to introduce it on super accounts with a lower threshold.

In the seat of Brisbane, where Liberal Trevor Evans is challenging Greens MP Stephen Bates, polling indicates 57 per cent of people are against the unrealised capital gains tax.