Election 2025: Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton in race to benefit from Trump bump on tariffs

Anthony Albanese is poised for a showdown with Donald Trump if sweeping tariffs are slapped on Australian goods, with the government considering WTO action, as Peter Dutton pledges to ‘stand up’ to the US President.

Clockwise from main: US President Donald Trump; Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese on the election campaign trail on Wednesday. Picture: Reuters, Thomas Lisson, Jason Edwards/NewsWire

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Anthony Albanese is poised for a showdown with Donald Trump if sweeping tariffs are slapped on Australian goods, with the government considering WTO action and invoking dispute measures in the US free trade agreement, as Peter Dutton pledges to “stand up” to the US President.

Ahead of the Trump administration on Thursday revealing the scope and size of US tariffs on Australian products including beef, pharmaceuticals and fruit, Labor and Coalition strategists are bracing for the US President to become a central figure in the May 3 election campaign.

As foreshadowed by The Australian last month, a senior Labor source said the government had ruled out retaliatory tariffs but was considering WTO disputes action and using remedies under the 2004 US-Australia FTA, starting with compulsory negotiation.

If the Trump administration launches indiscriminate tariffs on Australian exports to the US, the government is not ruling out anti-dumping measures and countervailing duties. The Coalition is backing the WTO action.

Since February 4, only Canada and China have launched WTO action against the US over tariffs on steel, aluminium and other goods. The WTO dispute-­settlements process takes two years on average to finalise cases and former trade officials say the action would be symbolic given Mr Trump’s attitude to multi­lateral bodies.

Trade Minister Don Farrell on Monday warned industry leaders that tariffs levelled by the White House could be as high as 20 per cent and apply to all exports to the US. Australia’s exports to the US in 2024 were valued at almost $24bn, including beef ($4.4bn), pharmaceuticals ($1.9bn), medical instruments ($401m) and fruit and vegetables ($68m).

The Australian can reveal ­Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade deputy secretary ­George Mina, a former ambassador to the WTO, was dispatched to Washington DC last month to manage Australia’s response with ambassador Kevin Rudd.

As Mr Trump met key trade advisers to finalise “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, his spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the US President was “always up to take a phone call” and “always up for a good negotiation”.

After Mr Albanese spoke to Mr Trump in February seeking an exemption for Australian steel and aluminium, the White House rejected the request and slapped 25 per cent levies on the metal ­exports valued at $807m.

The election campaign on Wednesday descended into a verbal stoush between the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader over who would be stronger in dealing with the US President and fighting for Australia’s interests.

Asked if he would take the US to the WTO if domestic goods were hit by Mr Trump, Mr Albanese said: “If a decision is made that is not in our interest, we will stand up for Australia’s ­national interest.”

Amid a global “Trump bump” phenomenon that has seen incumbent governments in Canada, Mexico, France, Ukraine and Great Britain win popularity boosts after their leaders stood up to the US leader, Mr Albanese ­accused Mr Dutton of “praising President Trump rather than standing up for Australia”.

“He thinks this is a contest of who can say the most aggro things; it’s not,” the Prime Minister said.

“That’s not the way diplomacy works. That’s not the way that ­engagement in international ­relations works. This guy has no experience in international relations. What it means is that Americans will pay more for the goods that they buy. I think it’s an act of economic self harm.”

After Mr Trump refused Australia an exemption on steel and aluminium, the Labor leader said “this is not a friendly act” and described the tariffs as “entirely unjustified”.

As Labor links Mr Dutton with Mr Trump and Elon Musk over public service cuts, the Liberal leader hit back and said he would “have a fight with Donald Trump or any other world leader” to advance Australia’s interests.

“If I needed to have a fight with Donald Trump or any other world leader, to advance our nation’s interest, I’d do it in a heartbeat,” Mr Dutton told Sky News on Wednesday. “I’ll put the Americans on notice and anyone else who seeks to act against our national interest.”

“In relation to tariffs, I’ve been very clear that my job as Prime Minister would be to stand up for our national interest and I don’t care whether it’s President Trump or any other world leader, my job is to stand for Australians and I have the strength and the experience to be able to do that.

“The Prime Minister is seen as a weak leader here in Australia. He’s seen as a weak leader by our international partners … that’s just the reality of it, that’s the way he conducts himself.”

After Mr Albanese called the election last Friday knowing the tariffs decision would fall in the first week of the campaign, Coalition strategists have grown concerned about any Trump effect. Seeking to amplify the threat of Chinese warships and geostrategic tensions in the Indo-Pacific, some have suggested Mr Dutton bring forward his election policy promising to lift defence spending.

After meeting Senator Farrell, industry sources said they believed the government was potentially overstating the scope of the tariffs so it could claim a political win if the trade restrictions were smaller than anticipated.

The government is already under pressure to match the actions taken after China’s unfair bans on Australian goods, when the Morrison government provided affected industries with support packages to help diversify into new international markets.

Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said Australia was well placed to absorb the tariffs hit and flagged the government would have more to say on industry support.

During China’s trade bans on Australian goods during the Covid pandemic, the Morrison government countered Beijing’s abuse of the WTO disputes process with complaints about restrictions on barley and other products.

The Trump administration has reportedly paused contributions to the trade body as Mr Musk cuts government spending under his Department of Government Efficiency.

Ahead of the tariffs judgment day, the Coalition landed on four trade policy positions in the event Australian products were hit.

Under the policy points obtained by The Australian, Mr Dutton would travel to the US within 60 days to meet Mr Trump to negotiate a deal.

A Coalition trade minister would use Australia’s role as chair of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to call a meeting of trade ministers in Canberra within 90 days.

The Coalition would also reinvigorate negotiations with the EU to finalise an FTA, and move to initiate a WTO dispute resolution process, proposing that the US tariffs contravene the Australia-US FTA.

Opposition trade spokesman Kevin Hogan said that only a week ago, the government was telling Australians that “our trade surplus and zero tariffs on US imports would secure us an exemption”.

Overnight, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU was preparing to counteract the swathe of tariffs levelled by the Trump administration on foreign goods, joining a host of countries that are mulling or have already implemented retaliatory measures.