Election 2022: Uncommitted voter crisis is nothing more than a political myth

‘For decades the notion of the soft vote has traditionally been between 20 per cent and 30 per cent. Nothing out of the ordinary.’

Major parties are in decline in the Western world, and Australia is only now catching up.

That much is obvious from the low levels of popular support for the Coalition and Labor heading into this election.

But the suggestion this has produced a political crisis that has rendered a quarter of the population unable to choose either of the major parties is a fantasy.

While it may serve particular agendas to suggest so, there is no evidence to suggest the electorate has fractured to this point.

If 25 per cent of voters were truly undecided, then any election outcome is frankly possible, including a Coalition landslide.

And no sane person is suggesting that.

The myth of an unprecedented level of uncommitted voters in this election as opposed to those past is simply not borne out by fact.

Even if the excuse of ignorance could be given for confusing uncommitted voters with “soft voters”, 25 per cent is not unusual.

In fact for decades the notion of the soft vote has traditionally been between 20 per cent and 30 per cent. Nothing out of the ordinary.

According to Newspoll, the uncommitted vote is at 6 per cent. This is within the normal boundaries of this measure.

In the 2016 election campaign, it was precisely this number. In 2019, it got down to 4 per cent.

This measure of uncommitted voters is derived from two sets of questions. The first Newspoll question asks which party (major, minor or independent) a respondent intends to vote for.

The residual “don’t knows” is around 11 per cent. There is nothing in the polling to suggest this number at the moment is any higher, or lower, statistically speaking, than at any other ­election.

A further question is then asked of those 11 per cent to gauge which way they may be “leaning”. What is left over is the truly uncommitted – which is generally around 6 per cent.

Again, this is not significantly different today than at any other time. Many of these may not even end up voting at all.

This has nothing to do with disillusioned voters who may have parked their vote with minor parties or independents out of complete disillusionment.

No one is questioning that.

And many of them may peel back off and vote with one of either the major parties in the end.

And it shouldn’t be confused with swinging voters, who are measured on their past behaviour of having voted for both Labor and the Coalition at different elections.

The idea that a quarter of the population is uncommitted is being widely reported, including from the campaign teams of the major parties themselves.

Last week’s leaders’ debate only fuelled this myth with its post-­debate poll, which showed that 25 per cent were un­committed ­following the debate.

The voting panel was drawn from a pool designed to have 100 per cent of respondents uncommitted in the first place.

In suggesting 25 per cent of the voting population was uncommitted because 25 per cent of uncommitted voters remained uncommitted after the debate is nonsensical.

The bottom line is that the level of frustration and disenchantment in the electorate faced with two unpopular choices, while real, is hardly new.

Consider Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd in 2013. Or ­Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in 2016.

But this has not, according to the evidence, produced a historically unparalleled electoral spasm.

A deep malaise? Sure. Voters are demonstrably and understandably unenthusiastic about the choice they are faced with.

But that doesn’t mean there are four million votes suddenly somehow up for grabs.

There is no evidence that the current level of uncommitted voters is any different to normal and the task remains, as it always has, for the major parties to give voters a reason to vote for them, and not someone else.