Election 2022: Marginals likely to hinge on housing

The hot-button election issue of housing affordability is high­lighted in new research showing property values have jumped by more than 50 per cent in several marginal seats.

Launceston in the Tasmanian seat of Bass. Picture: Istock

The hot-button election issue of housing affordability is high­lighted in new research showing property values have jumped by more than 50 per cent over the past two years in the marginal Tasmanian electorate of Bass, held by the Liberals, and the NSW ALP battleground seats of Gilmore and Shortland.

PowerHousing Australia, the national peak representative body for social and affordable housing, has used its electorate-by-electorate analysis of CoreLogic property data to call for the major parties to promise more to alleviate unaffordability.

Ahead of the Coalition’s official campaign launch on Sunday, PowerHousing chief executive Nicholas Proud said “these ­increases in prices since the onset of the pandemic are overwhelming, and there will be many undecided voters that will be looking for final policies in the last week, particularly from the Coalition”.

“These massive increases in price can add an additional decade to mortgage repayments, ­putting hardworking Australians further into debt for longer, with votes for affordable rental sure to win over marginal voters,” Mr Proud said.

The research shows rents have also increased dramatically, with 107 of 151 electorates having ­median rents increase by more than 10 per cent over the past two years. A further 34 electorates have recorded a jump in median rents of more than 20 per cent.

There have been 110 electorates where property prices have lifted by 20 per cent or more, while 35 electorates have seen their dwelling values surge by at least 40 per cent over the past two years.

Homes in Nowra in the NSW south coast electorate of Gilmore cost $235,000 more than they did two years ago – up 55 per cent and the greatest increase.

With two in three households living in a home they own – either outright or with a mortgage – the pandemic property boom has triggered a historic jump in wealth for many Australians.

But it has also intensified the difficulties for those seeking to buy for the first time. A rental squeeze is also adding to cost-of-living pressures that have become the central issue of the campaign.

Mr Proud said the establishment of the National Housing and Investment Commission in mid-2018 had been a major success in supporting over 15,000 new and existing homes via $2.9bn in low-cost loans to community housing providers.

The government has also put in place home loan guarantee schemes to help eligible would-be property buyers to get into the market with deposits of as little as 2 per cent.

Labor is taking to the election a commitment to create a $10bn “housing Australia future fund”. The returns generated from the fund would be given to the NHFIC to be reinvested into ­affordable housing.

The opposition has pledged to create a national housing supply and affordability council that will work with states and territories to set land release targets. The opposition has also proposed a help-to-buy scheme which would see the commonwealth co-invest with low-income Australians to help them buy their first home.

 

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said the policies of both major parties had focused too heavily on addressing the ­“demand side” of the market, with neither side offering much in the way of new housing supply.

“Hopefully we do see the ­Coalition announcing something in the lead up to the election around actually addressing the underlying issues that create this affordability situation, rather than just trying to boost homeownership through providing a demand-side incentive,” he said.

Mr Lawless said the Greens – who have pledged to build one million publicly owned homes over the next 20 years – “are ­addressing the underlying issues better than the other parties”.