Election 2022: Liberal fears rising in Craig Kelly seat of Hughes

Liberal party’s primary vote in blue ribbon seat of Hughes drops to 37 per cent, with a teal independent now in frame.

Liberal-turned-UAP MP Craig Kelly. Picture: Brad Fleet

Liberals are becoming increasingly worried about losing the blue-ribbon seat of Hughes to Climate 200, as new polling reveals the party’s primary vote has dropped to 37 per cent.

Liberal candidate Jenny Ware is facing off against ­independent Georgia Steele in the southern Sydney seat, ­notionally held on a margin of 9.9 per cent.

Sources close to the campaign say Ms Ware is on the nose with locals after being picked by Scott Morrison to run, against the wishes of rank-and-file branch members.

Georgia Steele, independent candidate for Hughes.

Ms Steele’s primary polling is under 40 per cent. The former corporate lawyer – who is campaigning with an orange colour palette, not teal – has raised more than $500,000 for her campaign, including a $100,000 donation from Simon Holmes a Court’s climate group.

The personal vote of incumbent Liberal turncoat Craig Kelly, of the United Australia Party, has plummeted to single digits and We Are ­Hughes independent Linda Seymour is at less than 3 per cent, ­according to a source who has seen the polling. The independent polling was conducted over the phone, towards the end of April.

“Jenny Ware may have ­expected an easy run but it’s very possible that Hughes will no longer be a Liberal seat after May 21,” the source said.

The Liberals’ numbers have slumped by 16.2 per cent since the last election. Mr Kelly received 53.2 per cent of first preferences in 2019, eventually winning the seat with 59.8 per cent of the vote.

Liberal luminaries have been deployed to help win the seat, including Finance Minister Simon Birmingham, Foreign Minister Marise Payne, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Communications Minister Paul Fletcher, Aged Care Minister Richard Colbeck and NSW Attorney-General Mark Speakman.

Named after Australia’s seventh prime minister Billy ­Hughes, the seat takes in the southern and southwestern suburbs of Sydney, including the Sutherland Shire.

It was in Labor hands from 1969 to 1996, when John Howard swept to power.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison (right) with Liberal candidate for Hughes Jenny Ware. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Nikki Short

It’s been a safe Liberal seat since, with Mr Kelly winning in 2010.

Malcolm Turnbull stopped a preselection challenge against Mr Kelly in 2016, despite a factional stoush where his opponents took control of local branches. Mr Morrison did the same in 2019, intervening to save Mr Kelly from party enemies.

The former furniture salesman left the Liberal Party in February last year and moved to the crossbench. He became leader of the United Australia Party in August.

Ms Ware was hand-picked by the Prime Minister to run in ­Hughes after his first choice, dual-citizen Gwen Cherne, was unable to run.

State MP for Heathcote Lee Evans described the Prime Minister’s decision as “unbelievable” and evidence that the Morrison government has a “death wish”.