Election 2022: Greens’ vote dives in Kooyong as voters back independent

The Greens’ support is diving in Kooyong as it bleeds climate votes to the Simon Holmes a Court-backed independent.

Josh Frydenberg shows his kicking style after a media conference at Whitten Oval in inner-west Melbourne’s Footscray. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Enrique Ascui

The Greens vote has collapsed in the federal seat of Kooyong, threatening to reshape the way the party campaigns in Melbourne’s inner east.

The rise of climate independent Monique Ryan in Kooyong with a big-spending campaign has cannibalised the Greens and Labor vote, destroying the inroads made by Julian Burnside in 2019 when he lifted the Greens’ vote above 21 per cent.

The Greens vote has “more than halved”, according to senior Liberals, who are watching intently as Climate 200-backed Dr Ryan has completely re-cast electioneering in the once blue-ribbon Liberal seat.

Polling conducted by the Ryan campaign, which skewed heavily towards the independent, reported support for Greens candidate Piers Mitchem of 11.7 per cent if an elections were held on April 12, but the Liberal Party believes the Greens have fallen below this with less than a month to go before polling day.

Mr Mitchem said if an independent had run in 2019 with the same sized campaign as Dr Ryan, it could have been enough to unseat Josh Frydenberg and elect then Greens candidate Julian Burnside.

He said the Greens were ­united with Dr Ryan on the call for climate change action and a crackdown on corruption.

“Ultimately having a range of candidates in the race – most notably the Greens, Labor and Dr Ryan – is also the best way for the Liberals to fall in Kooyong,” he said.

“The Greens are also aware of the importance of preference flows from a climate-focused independent. If a campaign of Dr Ryan’s size had occurred in 2019, the Greens would have won.”

If the Greens vote continues to tank in Kooyong with Dr Ryan sucking in climate votes from the minor party, it could have significant implications for the Greens’ long-term ambitions in the state seat of Hawthorn as well as the neighbouring federal seat of Higgins.

The Treasurer remains the frontrunner to win Kooyong but must ensure his primary vote does not fall much further from the 49.4 per cent he achieved in 2019.

While the Greens’ Mr Burnside managed 21.2 per cent in 2019, Mr Frydenberg was able to hold on to office, securing 55.7 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote, down from 63.3 per cent in 2016.

Liberal strategists do not want Mr Frydenberg’s primary vote to fall below 46 per cent, with Dr Ryan expected to yield the clear majority of preferences from the Greens and Labor.

In 2018, the Liberal Party lost the nearby state seat of Box Hill with a primary vote of 45.3 per cent.

Despite Liberals’ concern over Kooyong, their MPs hope the party will hold on to the seat, particularly given the enormous injection of cash into the electorate from the party and Mr Frydenberg’s wealthy backers.

It is likely Mr Frydenberg will spend as much as $2m fighting the election, with Ms Ryan also spending huge sums.

She is being backed by millionaire businessman Simon Holmes a Court, who has fallen out bitterly with Mr Frydenberg.

While billboards and corflutes promoting Mr Frydenberg and Dr Ryan are ubiquitous, the Greens and Labor are running low-profile campaigns.

Mr Mitchem said: “We’re glad the independent is in the race.

“We’re united in our key goals of urgent climate action, equality and ending corruption – all of which have long been neglected in Kooyong.”