Election 2022: Flip-flopping voters hold sway in volatile seat of Longman

Longman is the Coalition’s most marginal Queensland seat and strategists for both parties agree that Labor candidate Rebecca Fanning is the frontrunner.

Labor’s Rebecca Fanning is tipped to wrest the seat of Longman away from Liberal member Terry Young. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

On first blush, the outer Brisbane seat that propelled Scott Morrison into the prime ministership is Labor’s best chance of clawing back ground in the Coalition’s Queensland stronghold.

Nestled between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, Longman is the Coalition’s most marginal Queensland seat, and strategists for both parties agree that Labor candidate Rebecca Fanning is the frontrunner.

But of all seats in Queensland where the Prime Minister can close the gap, it’s Longman.

Taking in working-class ­suburbs around Caboolture and the retirement haven of Bribie ­Island, Longman is the sort of outer-suburban seat Mr Morrison is best at appealing to. Filled with some of the nation’s most volatile voters, Longman has changed hands four times since the 2007 election. And in 2018, unions helped bankroll a $1m by-election campaign to retain the seat for Labor’s Susan Lamb.

With a collapse in LNP ­support, the 2018 Longman by-­election loss was pivotal in triggering Peter Dutton to challenge ­Malcolm Turnbull for the party’s leadership, which ultimately resulted in Mr Morrison becoming Prime Minister.

After losing to the LNP’s Terry Young in 2019, Ms Lamb, of the Left faction, was expected to run for preselection again but pulled out at the 11th hour.

Needing to meet Labor’s affirmative action targets, which require women to be preselected in 40 per cent of winnable electorates, the seat was snapped up by Ms Fanning, who is a member of the Right faction.

Ms Fanning, who worked as a policy adviser for Queensland Deputy Premier Steven Miles and former federal treasurer Wayne Swan, has been running a health-focused campaign full-time since July last year.

If elected, she said Labor would reopen the emergency clinic at the Morayfield Health Hub to ease pressure on public hospitals.

Liberal Longman MP Terry Young. Picture: AAP

She also promised to classify the electorate as a Distribution Priority Area, which determines whether overseas-trained and bonded medical program doctors can practise in a region.

“Being on the metropolitan outskirts, when people get sick it is a wait of three weeks or longer to see a GP,” she said.

“The reason people are waiting so long is because we have a critical shortage of GPs in this area.”

Most of the electorate was already reclassified as a priority area earlier this year, Mr Young said.

The battle for Longman has become so intense that Mr Young refused to detail his re-election pitch to constituents when asked by The Australian.

“I don’t want to expose what my plans are – it is a bit early and I want to keep things up my sleeve,” he said.

Caboolture mother Samara Weston, 30, voted Labor at the last election but is not sure who she will preference on May 21.

“I usually research first to make a somewhat educated decision; I change my vote at almost every election,” she said.

“Cost of living is going up in every town and I am not really sure what the politicians can do about that.”

Both candidates will be courting ­undecided voters, such as Ms Weston, who may consider supporting minor parties whose preferences will be decisive.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is primed to be the kingmaker in Longman, where the final winner has previously been determined on its preference flow.

At the 2016 election, about 57 per cent of One Nation voters sent their preferences to Ms Lamb, who narrowly won the seat.

In 2019, the trend reversed with 63 per cent of One Nation preferences going to Mr Young.

Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams predicts One Nation’s influence will grow in Longman at this election.

“Voters in Longman are not usually very interested in climate change or human rights issues – there is more of a focus on culture wars and kitchen table economics,” he said.

“I think Labor will win in ­ Longman.

“If Anthony Albanese can‘t make inroads in Longman, they have severely miscalculated their campaign in Queensland.”