Election 2022: Change agents at teal heart not all ex-Liberals

Electoral analysis disproves widespread belief that all new ­Climate 200-backed independents picked up the ­majority of their votes from dis­affected Liberal ­voters.

Robs Smith and John Lettoof, at Avalon on Sydney’s northern beaches, both voted for teal candidate Sophie Scamps. Picture: John Feder

Of the dozens of suburbs that turned teal last Saturday, turfing six Liberal moderates out of parliament and contributing to the downfall of the Morrison government, beachside Avalon on Sydney’s northern beaches was the tealest of them all.

But electoral analysis by The Weekend Australian has disproved the widespread belief that all of the new ­Climate 200-backed independents picked up the ­majority of their votes from dis­affected Liberal ­voters.

In the Melbourne seat of Kooyong, the swing against Josh Frydenberg was smaller than the swings against each of the Labor and Greens candidates, while in another three teal victory seats, the swing against the sitting Liberal was smaller than the combined swing against Labor, the Greens and all other candidates.

Nationwide, voters at 12 booths in three different seats were so ­attracted to the teal option, the majority gave the independent their first ­preference.

In the quiet enclave of the sunburnt and the wealthy that is Sydney’s northern peninsula, four polling booths in Jason Falinski’s seat of Mackellar reported more than 50 per cent first preference votes for Sophie Scamps.

Avalon South recorded 56.3 per cent, the highest teal independent primary vote of any large booth in the country, followed by Avalon Beach (55.4 per cent), Bilgola Plateau (53.1 per cent) and Avalon (52.4 per cent).

Former state independent upper house member for Pittwater Alex McTaggart said Avalon was a wealthy, well-educated community that prioritised climate as a key issue. “Avalon’s right on the coast and the average young person here is involved in the surf or the surf club,” Mr McTaggart said.

“They see the effects of climate on the coast.”

Mr McTaggart said a federal anti-corruption commission and health – the nearest hospital is 22km away – were other issues on which Dr Scamps successfully campaigned.

Most of the teal independents picked up many of their votes from Labor or Greens voters. In Kooyong, the former Liberal treasurer’s primary vote fell by 6.3 per cent while Labor lost 11.1 per cent and the Greens 15 per cent.

 

In nearby Goldstein, where ­former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel overcame Tim Wilson, the swing against Labor almost hit 18 per cent, compared with the ousted Liberal MP’s 11.7 per cent.

The vote pattern was different in North Sydney, where Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman suffered a primary vote fall of 13.7 per cent, much larger than Labor’s 3.6 per cent and the Greens’ 5.7 per cent. And in Wentworth, teal victor Allegra Spender’s 38.8 per cent primary vote drew largely on the vote former independent Kerryn Phelps won in 2019 and Liberal MP Dave Sharma’s support. Labor and Greens votes held steady.

Redbridge executive director Kos Samaras, whose polling company undertook research for the Climate 200 candidates, said the location of polling booths influenced how the primary vote split. A high proportion of younger voters and renters translated into a stronger turnout for teals.

Four of the top five teal booths in Kooyong weres in Hawthorn, a suburb that mixes wealthy families in $20m mansions and students in rental apartments, while top of the list in North Sydney was Greenwich, another suburb with a high proportion of apartments. And Wentworth’s top booths were in renter-heavy Bondi, Paddington and Bronte

Dr Scamps had a campaign budget of $1.4m, half of which was raised from the community and the other half coming from millionaire climate activist Simon Holmes a Court’s fundraising war chest Climate 200.

Semi-retired teacher John Lettoof, 65, has lived in Avalon for 30 years and said he voted Greens one and Dr Scamps second due to concerns over climate change.

“You can just see it (climate change),” said Mr Lettoof, a keen surfer and fisherman.

“You know I could point behind me right now to the shellfish that are missing off the rocks – the pool is denuded, it‘s not full of life as it normally is.”

Dr Scamps’ campaign was also more youth-friendly, including a free concert on May 1 – called Election Beats – in Avalon’s Dunbar Park headlined by local artists Angus and Julia Stone, Lime Cordiale and comedian Dan Ilic. The event attracted about 1500 people. At the same time, Mr Falinski treated about 250 supporters to sausage rolls and beers at Cromer Golf Club.

The first-world problems of ­Avalon residents were satirised in 2015 in the film Avalon Now, which later became a web series, depicting a couple torn between pairing pinot gris or pinot grigio with barramundi for dinner.