Election 2022: Anthony Albanese illness no boon for Labor

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese appears on the ABC on Friday.

One of the few predictable things in an otherwise uncertain election campaign was that Anthony Albanese was going to get Covid.

The east coast of Australia is now populated by people who have either had the virus or are getting the virus.

The chances of the Labor leader contracting it were high. This was a scenario already factored into Labor’s tactical campaign thinking. The nation wishes him a speedy recovery.

But the notion that his temporary incapacitation is somehow an opportunity to showcase Labor’s front bench as a band of rotating stand-ins is an insult to voters and demonstrates just how little faith there is in the deputy leader Richard Marles.

It is also further confirmation that Labor’s risk-averse campaign strategy is built around the singular pillar of small-target harm minimisation.

Suggesting that Albanese’s absence from the campaign trail allowed Labor to highlight the “depth” of Labor’s team is a transparent construct that only highlights a lack of confidence in Marles’ ability to carry Labor’s message.

No one would doubt Josh Frydenberg’s enthusiasm as deputy Liberal leader to be the understudy for Morrison should he have fallen foul of the virus for a second time.

The hesitancy around Marles raises obvious questions about his aspirations to reclaim the defence portfolio if Labor wins government, at a time when this role is so critical to Australia’s security.

Clearly, the campaign is at a critical moment. Momentum is favouring the Coalition after Albanese’s self-inflicted gaffes during the first week.

Rather than retreat further into obscurity, this was a time when Labor needed to demonstrate why it deserved to be back in government. It needed to show that it is up to it.

The refusal to nominate a clear replacement for Albanese – if not Marles, then shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers – reveals the strategic weakness of Labor’s campaign.

Competence now becomes key to the remainder of the campaign.

Labor wants to run down the clock.

The benefit for Albanese, notwithstanding his illness, is that seven days have just been taken out of a campaign, reducing the risk of further mistakes.

Coalition strategists are calling it the Biden strategy.

There were two key reasons for Morrison calling a long six-week campaign.

Clearly behind in the polls, he needed more time. He also believed that he would out-campaign Albanese, as was demonstrated in the first week of the campaign.

The advantage for Morrison with Albanese now isolated at home is that the Prime Minister can own the campaign space.

Labor’s belief that ring-fencing Albanese from scrutiny would win them an election is now being tested and could ultimately prove to be a fatal approach.

It always underestimated Morrison’s campaign superiority and his ability to win over the outer-suburban electorates to the Coalition side, even if he is unpopular.