The Coalition’s nightmare of chaos, backbiting, name-calling and sabotage in the Eden-Monaro candidate selection is handing Anthony Albanese a dream beginning to his first electoral test as Labor leader.
Even before a Liberal or Nationals candidate has been chosen, bitter rivalries have been exposed between the Coalition patterns, the fragility of Michael McCormack’s federal Nationals leadership has been exposed, and the precarious two-seat majorities of Scott Morrison and Gladys Berejiklian have been highlighted.
As Opposition Leader defending a marginal Labor electorate just 12 months since it was so close to being lost, and as the Prime Minister surges in the polls because of his handling of the coronavirus, Albanese is the man with the most to lose.
A Liberal victory would be the first time in a century that a government has taken a seat from the opposition at a by-election, would increase the Coalition’s majority to three, and undermine arguments that Albanese is more popular and a better campaigner than Bill Shorten … yet the Liberals and Nationals are doing everything within their power to hand victory to Labor through public fighting, leadership destabilisation, personal smears and a damaging focus on themselves and their political fortunes.
When the Australian public — especially the people of the drought, fire and COVID-19 ravaged seat of Eden-Monaro is anxious and looking for selfless leadership, the Coalition has shown only tawdry political ambitions, foul-mouthed tirades and threats to destroy the campaign.
High-profile NSW ministerial candidates, the Nationals’ John Barilaro and Liberal Andrew Constance, crashed in a flaming embrace of mutual destruction and bitterness. And conservative Liberal senator Jim Molan formally declared he was not running and hoped a local plebiscite would select a local candidate.
Meanwhile, Albanese has been able to campaign with his chosen candidate, former Bega mayor Kristy McBain, talk about bushfires, bushfires, bushfires and how Labor is interested in the local people, not MPs’ jobs.
Yet the Coalition dysfunction feeds the impression the ALP is hot favourite to win, and that is not the impression Albanese wants to give. He wants this to be seen as a tough contest, and an excusable loss in extraordinary times should the Liberals win.
Yet all this early acrimony may deliver a good local Coalition female candidate — Fiona Kotvojs, who went close to winning against Kelly at the federal election and could run a successful local campaign detached from the egos and skulduggery of the sitting MPs, with strong local Liberal support.
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