Dutton’s Queensland appeal stops at the border

Peter Dutton might be the only hope to save the almost certain loss of marginal government seats in Queensland.

Peter Dutton in the House of Representatives yesterday. Picture: Kym Smith

Peter Dutton might be the only hope to save the almost certain loss of marginal government seats in Queensland, but a gamble on the divisive leadership aspirant could create problems elsewhere for the Coalition.

Party strategists and political commentators were yesterday unanimous that Dutton would stem the bleed in Queensland where Malcolm Turnbull has been blamed by the Liberal National Party for its plummeting primary vote.

A seasoned campaigner, Dutton won and held his electorate of Dickson, on Brisbane’s northern fringe, in six tight contests as neighbouring seats seesawed between the major parties.

The straight-talking veteran frontbencher is regarded among LNP officials and parliamentary colleagues as the antidote to the rise of One Nation and the drain on the Coalition’s primary vote, most recently evidenced at the July 28 by-election in Longman, which borders Dickson.

But Dutton’s conservatism, and hardline stance on immigration, could just as easily repel voters in Coalition seats in the capitals, including Brisbane (on a 6 per cent margin) and nearby Bonner (3.39 per cent), in Sydney’s Reid (4.69 per cent) and La Trobe (3.5 per cent) on the outskirts of Melbourne.

One Labor strategist working on Bill Shorten’s campaign said last night that while Dutton’s appeal “undoubtedly plays to suburbia and the outer city fringes,’’ his currency among voters was untested.

“We are not ripping up the campaign playbook in panic,’’ he said, on a condition of anonymity.

“This is a guy who is largely unknown, and in a lot of the regional seats across Australia you have to doggedly keep going back to the towns, talk to people, get to know local issues and let them see you.’’

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Political commentator Paul Williams, of Griffith University in Queensland, said Dutton would give hope to Coalition MPs sitting on marginal seats largely in Queensland, but it would come at a cost.

“Anyone on margins of 4 or 5 per cent in Queensland would be forlorn under Turnbull but have some renewed hope with Dutton,’’ Dr Williams said.

“He is not the panacea, but he is the circuit-breaker that mainstream conservatism needs in Queensland.

“Dutton will corral the votes that have gone to One Nation.

“But for every two votes he picks up for the Coalition north of Brisbane, he might well lose three moving south.’’

Dr Williams said voters in the seat of Brisbane — held by Trevor Evans who once worked for Dutton — are more “small-l Liberals’’ and may turn away because of Dutton’s hardline conservatism.

“It could also happen in Bowman, in Bonner and city seats in Sydney and Melbourne.’’

Graham Young, executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress and a former Liberal Party vice-president in Queensland, said Dutton would help hold marginal seats — particularly in Australia’s urban fringes and regions — and possibly pick up Labor electorates.

“Given his profile on certain issues, in places like Herbert in Townsville and Bradden in Tasmania, where the Libs just missed out last time around, Dutton won’t hurt their chances of picking up a seat,’’ he said.