Dutton doubles down on 160,000 net overseas migration target

Peter Dutton has vowed to reduce net overseas migration by 100,000 compared to the current intake, declaring he is “not worried” about a business backlash.

Peter Dutton attends Blue Scope Steel in St Clair in Sydney’s west to discuss cost of materials on the campaign trail. Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

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Peter Dutton has vowed to reduce net overseas migration by 100,000 people compared to Labor, declaring he is “not worried” about backlash from business leaders over his push to drastically slash immigration.

The Opposition Leader recommitted to the ambitious target he had previously walked back, confirming that under his plan the Coalition would pursue a net migration target of 160,000 based on the current forecast of 260,000.

The pledge follows a series of policy backflips on net overseas migration, which refers to the number of arrivals minus the departures, with Mr Dutton consistently vowing to pursue steeper immigration cuts than Labor in a bid to reduce pressure on housing supply.

Mr Dutton on Wednesday said the cuts would begin “straight away, once we get into government. It depends on what the NOM figure is at the moment, because, if you have a look at the Prime Minister, all sorts of wild projections, in relation to NOM, and none of them achieved.”

“They always blow out, and their migration targets always blow out so, from the figure that we are bequeathed when we come into government, the figure that it is when we change government, we can reduce it by 100,000 – that’s our position,” Mr Dutton said.

He has promised to cut permanent migration by 25 per cent, from 185,000 to 140,000 people, but this figure has little bearing on the number of new arrivals in the country as the program is for long-term residents.

After outlining the commitment in his 2024 budget reply speech, the next day Mr Dutton said the Coalition’s target was to “bring back the net overseas migration to a figure of about 160,000”.

He then appeared to dump this target in December, stating that the Coalition would “have a look at the economic settings when we come to government”.

The Business Council of Australia and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry were among peak bodies to raise concerns about the pledge to cut migration, arguing that the reduction would exacerbate workforce shortages.

Speaking outside a BlueScope steel factory in western Sydney where he was promoting new modelling for his gas policy, Mr Dutton shrugged off suggestions that recommitting to the net migration target would provoke criticism from business leaders.

“I’m not worried about that,” he said. “I’ve got the first and foremost interest in mind and that is to get young Australians into housing. I’m not going to tolerate Labor’s policy, where they’re happy that Australians and young Australians can’t get into housing.”

Former deputy secretary of the Department of Immigration Abul Rizvi said the target of 160,000 would be achievable only if there was a “massive deterioration in the labour market”.

“There is no way he could implement the legislative/regulatory changes in time to have the required effect in 2025-26,” he said.

The federal budget in March estimated that net overseas migration would reach 255,000 ­people in 2025-26, and then decline to 225,000 in 2026-27 and in the two following years.