Durban on track to be a bonfire of piety

WILL the two-decade long climate change talks go down in history as the most unsuccessful endeavour ever undertaken by the United Nations?

It's a big call.

But if the wildly differing positions cannot be aligned over the next three days of ministerial negotiations that started in Durban last night it is not unreasonable to suggest.

Behind all the diplomatic niceties, the gulf between the developed and developing world, and even within the groupings of self-interest, remains significant.

In essence, developed countries want to move on from the Kyoto Protocol and bring everyone under a single process with binding targets.

Developing nations want to keep the developed world locked into the existing dual track framework.

The world's largest emerging emitters, China and India, are both a long way from agreeing to binding emissions targets.

And the United States is equally unable, or unwilling, to commit.

Sure, there is progress on side issues that basically involve an historic transfer of wealth and technology from the developed to the developing world.

This certainly resonates on the host continent Africa.

But will it be properly targeted and quick enough to make any difference to the future of global carbon emissions and rising world temperatures?

The challenge is vast and the two-decade UN process is struggling to deliver.

If all that Durban can produce is a compromise that aims to pacify rather than deliver it will be another in a long line of missed opportunities.

If Durban ends in a train wreck, as is still possible, it could spell disaster.

This may well be, as some people claim, a "bonfire of the piety".