Doom-and-gloom climate report is pure speculation
I’m relying on our committed Climate Change and Energy Minister, Chris Bowen, to achieve these things.
But hang on. Can Australia do anything on its own to alter our climate trends given that the science tells us that it is global emissions that matter? Do other countries really give a toss what we get up to in terms of emissions reduction targets and the like? After all, our emissions only amount to just over 1 per cent of total global emissions.
The big players – China, India and the US – are not targeting net zero by 2050. It is estimated that 60-70 per cent of emissions are not covered by any policy constraints.
For economic and strategic reasons, China boasts about its investment in green energy and the like, all the time opening new coal-fired plants.
The world’s confected outrage about climate change has been an economic boon to China as it essentially corners the market in solar panels, wind turbines and batteries. It’s a great business model – for China.
So how should we judge the latest release on the climate catastrophe hitting Australia?
I had to ask Spotify to play some scary music while I read the summary. It paints a picture of climate gloom and doom, particularly under the 3C scenario. Too hot, too cold, too many extreme weather events, rising sea levels, falling property prices – you know the sort of thing. Bung in some terrifying numbers and surely ordinary folk will take some notice.
Evidently, we are to believe that more than 1.5 million people will be affected by rising sea levels and coastal flooding. Gosh, those harbourside mansions in Sydney may become affordable, although there are no signs of that occurring yet.
Weirdly, some of the numbers look very small. For instance, damage-related losses of up to $770bn are estimated under a worst-case scenario by 2100. Given that current GDP is over $2.6 trillion, that number looks entirely manageable.
As for the hilarious estimate that “losses in Australian property values are estimated to increase to $611bn by 2050 and could increase to $770bn by 2090”, these numbers are just made up; they are included for dramatic effect. But, hey, this could be an answer to our affordable housing problem.
Let’s be clear here – this type of report is pure speculation. The underlying modelling is highly contestable and there is little doubt that the authors have constantly opted for the worst-case scenarios in putting the report together.
Of course, climate change can have both benefits and costs. If you live in Moscow, rising temperatures sound like a blessing.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is much more circumspect about the relationship between the frequency of extreme weather events and rising temperatures. There’s no evidence of appropriate scientific humility in our local menacing report.
If there is one, clear message, it’s the need for investment in adaptation. If the climate is to emerge as predicted, then there is a case for spending money to make sure we can cope.
There won’t be any need for hundreds of thousands of people to die of heat stroke because we should have affordable and reliable energy powering effective airconditioning.
We should make sure that people don’t build houses in flood-prone areas or in the likely paths of bushfires.
Effective flood levies and Bob’s your uncle in terms of preventing inundation – just ask the Dutch.
Of course, the real purpose of this report and its timing is to soften us all up for the announcement of the government’s emissions reduction target for 2035.
Bear in mind the current legislated target of a 42 per cent decline by 2030 from the 2005 level is very unlikely to be met.
But what the heck, let’s think big – maybe in the range of 60-70 per cent.
We’re unlikely to meet that – if we did, the costs would be immense – but we will all be able to feel worthy, if poorer, when we fail.
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Personally speaking, I would prefer every day to be about 26C to 28C, clear blue skies and a gentle breeze. I’m happy to do away with the seasons – let’s face it, they can be quite annoying.