Doherty Institute target ‘risks Covid-19 death of 25,000 people’

Australia faces more than 25,000 Covid-19 deaths if the PM sticks with his plan to open the nation at 80 per cent vaccination rates.

The Covid-19 ICU Ward at RPA Hospital in Sydney. RPA has now opened up more beds to accommodate the increasing number of ICU Covid cases. Picture: Richard Dobson

Australia faces more than 25,000 Covid-19 deaths and hundreds of thousands of long coronavirus cases if Scott Morrison sticks with his plan to open the nation with an 80 per cent vaccination rate, a cross-university group of academics claims.

In a study for the Australian National University, a group of economists and medical ­researchers say the Doherty ­Institute’s thresholds for reopening Australia are too low and the nation should not loosen restrictions until 90 per cent of Australia’s entire population – including children – has had two shots.

Even then, the academics – from ANU, the University of Melbourne and the University of Western Australia – say Australians will need a third booster shot, especially if they received Vaxzevria (previously AstraZeneca), and 95 per cent of vulnerable groups and people over 60 are fully vaccinated.

The academics’ call comes as the Prime Minister stands by the plan to open up with vaccination thresholds based solely on the adult population and warns premiers not to abandon the plan.

ANU economics professor Quentin Grafton said the ­Doherty Institute’s adult-only vaccination rates would lead to “substantial morbidity and mortality”.

“Assuming 80 per cent vaccination coverage for only those over 16, as per the national plan, there could be approx­imately 25,000 fatalities and some 270,000 cases of long Covid,” he said.

“In contrast, and if children are also fully vaccinated, national ­fatalities – for all age groups – would be reduced to 19,000 with 80 per cent adult vaccination coverage. This would fall to 10,000 at a 90 per cent adult vaccination coverage.

“Children also directly benefit from vaccination. If we could achieve 75 cent vaccination coverage among children and ­adolescents, we could prevent 12,000 hospitalisations in these age groups.”

University of Western Australia medical researcher Zoe Hyde said there would still be a substantial number of deaths under the best possible vaccine coverage.

“Even if the country achieves the four steps we are calling for, fully relaxing public health measures to eliminate community transmission could still, eventually, result in some 5000 fatalities and 40,000 cases of long Covid,” she said.

“For all these reasons and more, it’s simply too dangerous to treat Covid-19 like the flu.”