Disenchanted chatter that sparked defence of Liberals’ broad church

MPs are aware it will only take the defection of seven Liberals to flip the balance of the Coalition. Such talk has prompted the defence of the party’s broad church.

From left: Matt Canavan, David Littleproud, Sussan Ley, James Paterson, Andrew Hastie

After an acrimonious partyroom meeting in Canberra last week, a disenchanted Liberal MP mused that if seven of his colleagues ­defected to the Nationals the balance of power within the Coalition would be flipped.

The MP told The Australian it was “interesting” some Liberals were aware of the figure, which had been floated in discussions among a rump of conservative MPs who believed their views on climate and energy policy were ­irreconcilable with city-based moderates.

The figure was planted in the heads of Liberals opposed to net-zero emissions by Nationals senator Matt Canavan, and while MPs suspect he raised it in jest it has sparked broader discussions about whether there could be a shake-up of the centre-right of politics.

Options being discussed in ­casual meetings in bars and restaurants in Canberra include federalising the Queensland model for the Liberal National Party or finding enough Coalition MPs with common ground to form a new party altogether, in outcomes some conservatives believe would force some moderates to find another home.

Conservative MPs say they only began discussing a new party model when they suspected ­moderates were having their own discussions about a potential split of the Liberal Party, showcasing the paranoia and despair within Sussan Ley’s ranks.

While there is no suggestion the talks are formal or an overhaul of the centre-right’s structure is likely, the chatter was taken ­seriously enough for leading ­moderate Andrew Bragg and top conservative James Paterson to publicly issue pre-emptive strikes over the past fortnight against any potential push to split the ­Coalition. Senator Paterson and opposition defence spokesman Angus Taylor are among conservatives fiercely resisting a populist push being led by leadership ­aspirant Andrew Hastie, arguing the “broad church” model of the Liberal Party is the key to future success.

Mr Hastie is intrigued by the success of Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK party, which is outpolling both the Labour Starmer government and the Conservative Party.

While most MPs did not want to speak on the record, Liberal MP Tony Pasin, a conservative who represents the rural South Australian seat of Barker, confirmed there had been discussions about a new model for the Coalition.

“Colleagues are contemplating all manner of options concurrently, which is probably not surprising given the result of the last ­federal election and the fact that our prospects haven’t improved since then,” Mr Pasin said.

He said one option being discussed was the potential for the Liberal and National parties to merge into one federal entity, which happened in the Queensland division in 2008.

“As a Coalitionist, it has never made sense for me to have an LNP in Queensland, a Liberal Party, a National party and a Country Liberal Party. Surely the brand would be stronger if we had an LNP-style party across the ­nation,” he said.

With a federal LNP to give current Nationals MPs a vote on the opposition leader and bolster conservative voices, Mr Pasin said it would be a “matter for individual colleagues” if they joined the amalgamated entity.

“I cannot imagine a circumstance in which my views and those of colleagues who want to pursue net zero and a renewables-only energy policy, I can’t imagine they will be reconcilable,” he said.

Senior moderate and conservative MPs who are in shadow cabinet said discussions about a new party structure would go ­nowhere, arguing it was being floated by backbenchers who were on the outer of the dominant opinion within the opposition.

Responding to questions over the internal discussions, Senator Bragg said “fragmentation of the centre right would be a disaster for Australia”.

“Most Liberals know this is a bigger issue than any individual or sectional interest,” Senator Bragg said. “It’s about the cohesion and coherence of the national political system.”

Mr Pasin said a shake-up of the centre-right of politics would be akin to Robert Menzies creating the Liberal Party 80 years ago.

“What we are talking about right now is nothing different from the circumstances that presented themselves when Robert Menzies brought disparate, minor, right-wing parties together to create the Liberal Party in the first instance,” he said.

“I fear that if we don’t act decisively then the Labor Party will become the natural party of government federally. And that would be a very bad outcome for the Australian people.”

Liberals opposed to net zero include Mr Hastie, Mr Pasin, Alex Antic, Garth Hamilton, Ben Small, Henry Pike, Jacinta Price, Sarah Henderson and Rick Wilson.

A senior conservative MP told The Australian that federalising the LNP was impractical, while talks of junking liberal traditions would not have majority support of the Right of the partyroom.

A senior moderate, meanwhile, has acknowledged that a new structure for the centre-right would probably happen if the Liberal Party went backwards at the next election.

Showcasing the hostility between warring factions, one senior MP said moderates and conservatives suspected each other was planning on splitting from the Coalition.

While Senator Canavan said his conversations with Liberals were not “concerted” efforts to convince them to join the Nationals, he said “my number one focus is to fight behind a banner that puts Australians first”.

“To do that we have to dump net zero and regain control of our borders,” Senator Canavan said.

“I would love to do that in a ­coalition with the Liberal Party, but if it takes the Nationals party playing a bigger role then so be it. The Liberal Party has such a big task at the next election that it makes sense for the Nationals Party to look to run in more seats.”

The Liberals hold 28 seats in the House of Representatives compared with 15 from the Nationals. Senator Canavan’s scenario of seven MPs switching camps would leave the Nationals rise with 22 seats and the Liberals with 21.

One Nationals MP said there would likely be some Coalition MPs willing to consider a new party if Ms Ley and David Littleproud refused to junk net zero.