Denis Napthine facing electoral wipeout as support crashes: Newspoll

DENIS  Napthine’s Coalition faces being swept from power as a clear majority of voters reject his government, according to the latest Newspoll.

State Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews, who is favoured to win the next election according to Newspoll, talks to media yesterday. Picture: Ian Currie

DENIS  Napthine’s Coalition faces being swept from power as a clear majority of voters reject his government and plunge the Victorian Premier into negative leadership territory for the first time, according to the latest Newspoll.

Newspoll reveals the Liberal Party’s primary vote is now just 32 per cent and the combined ­Coalition figure is languishing at 35 per cent — nearly 10 points below the 2010 general poll.

For the first time, Dr Napthine’s net satisfaction rating has dropped into negative territory, a troubling result for the government as Labor leads 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

If this were replicated at the November 29 election, Labor’s Daniel Andrews would be handed a comfortable working majority and render the Coalition the first one-term administration since the 1950s.

The 55-45 two-party result is the worst recorded under Dr Napthine’s leadership and comes ­despite Labor being embroiled in scandal over a stolen dictaphone and rebel independent Geoff Shaw being banished from the parliament.

It also comes amid deep anger in the Liberal Party over the way former premier Ted Baillieu ­handled his exit from the parliament so close to the election.

Labor’s strong showing in the broad Newspoll numbers is ­despite tepid support for Mr ­Andrews, who is also in negative satisfaction territory and trails Dr Napthine 41 per cent to 31 per cent on the better premier rating.

Labor’s primary vote is at 37 per cent, which is statistically the same as 2010, but the party would benefit from preferences due to a higher Greens vote.

Dr Napthine’s 41 per cent better premier rating is down from 49 per cent when he was first elected last year by the parliamentary party and 31 per cent is Mr ­Andrews’ highest result in more than a year.

The proportion of voters satisfied with the way Dr Napthine is doing his job as Premier has fallen by four points to 40 per cent, down from a peak of 53 per cent.

While not statistically different from the previous Newspoll, the proportion dissatisfied is showing signs of trending upwards at 43 per cent, with his net satisfaction level at minus three.

This negative net satisfaction rating is determined by subtracting the number satisfied with his performance from the number dissatisfied.

Mr Andrews has been in negative territory for months and has risen to minus nine but Labor more broadly has held its standing for many months.

The July-August Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows only slight movements on the primary and two party-preferred votes but taken over time there is a clear trend pointing to the government struggling to win voter support.

The 32 per cent Liberal primary vote is six points below the 2010 election result, while the ­Nationals are nearly four points down at 3 per cent over the same period.

The Greens are steady on 16 per cent but this is nearly five points above election time.

Strategists on both sides of politics expect voter sentiment to tighten during the election campaign and probably well into the last week of the campaign.

However, Newspoll points to a worrying trend for the Coalition and comes as the fallout over Mr Baillieu’s looming departure deepens. John Pesutto, the incumbent premier’s legal counsel, is expected to contest the seat, as is Institute of Public Affairs chief John Roskam.

Two government ministers, Mary Wooldridge and David Davis, are believed to be unhappy with the way Mr Baillieu has quit at the eleventh hour, making it virtually impossible for them to run for the safe inner-Melbourne seat of Hawthorn.

Strategists privately ­believe that the mixed performance of the Abbott government has had a significantly negative impact on the Napthine administration but that the watering down of some budget measures should minimise the federal fallout on the state.