Daniel Andrews must open Victoria up or risk voter lockdown fatigue

It is in Daniel Andrews’ interests for there to be minimal discussion about the potential for superspreading from construction workers. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

Dan Andrews is on a political precipice.

Which is why his central message on Thursday was that he wants lockdowns to end.

He knows they need to end because they have become politically toxic and the community has stopped listening to him on his core policy response to the pandemic.

The compliance that was there in 2020 that ended the second wave has evaporated and the Victorian Premier must somehow chart a new direction. It is common sense that if this dramatic surge in caseload continues, the road map announced less than two weeks ago will have to change.

But the government is committed to an end to lockdowns in part because its political survival will rely on it.

Andrews is tricky. He managed to steer away from any in-depth discussion or examination of what role, if any, the protests are playing in the rising numbers.

While the protesters have been defended in some truly bizarre places in the past week, it makes perfect sense these people could have contributed to the infection numbers.

We may not know how many, but we already know the CFMEU headquarters is linked to a cluster, probably protest-related.

It is in Andrews’ interests for there to be minimal discussion about the potential for superspreading from construction workers but epidemiologists are wondering aloud whether this could be one of the sources for the sharp increases.

Instead, the focus has been placed back on to people who celebrated the AFL grand final last weekend, moving more rapidly around Melbourne and meeting indoors in large numbers.

The issue is not that people have broken the rules, it is that they have done the “wrong thing” before Victoria is sufficiently vaccinated.

The carrot Andrews is dangling is the prospect of sharply more freedoms in the next month when double-vaccination rates hit 70 per cent and 80 per cent. His challenge will be how to encourage compliance at a time when the community has given up.

The numbers are also showing that rather than this being just a north, northwest and west suburban issue, the virus is spreading all the way across Melbourne.

In many ways, the government finds itself in a similar position to the end of the second wave.

While Andrews’ polling numbers held up throughout 2020, he will know that for every extra week Victoria is locked down, support for Labor will diminish.

All the feedback suggests the government remains popular and would easily be re-elected.

But the level of frustration in the community is now so great, this support could easily fall off a cliff. Andrews will know he is vulnerable, regardless of what polling numbers might say 14 months out from an election.

This is a very tired and traumatised electorate that needs to be set free.

It’s why Andrews will do everything he can to make that happen.