Daniel Andrews, John Armitage and QDOS: everything we know about secret pandemic polling
As details of the Victorian Premier’s secret pandemic polling is revealed, we take a closer look at the veteran political operative behind it and his penchant for fanning the flames.
As details of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ secret pandemic polling is revealed, we take a closer look at the company behind it, the millions it was paid and the veteran political operative at its centre.
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What is QDOS research?
QDOS Research is a political strategy and polling firm owned and operated by veteran Labor-aligned operative John Armitage.
The firm specialises in advising Labor governments and Left-wing social and political causes. QDOS runs focus groups and online surveys that test the mood of people on running issues and policy settings. Armitage’s key lieutenant is chief researcher, Sue Loukomitis, who is the primary point of contact between QDOS and the Department of Premier and Cabinet (DPC) and the Victorian Premier’s Private Office (PPO).
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Who did QDOS poll and when?
QDOS has been advising Premier Daniel Andrews since 2016, when the firm won a competitive tender for a $1m-plus contract. In 2019, QDOS was handed another $1m-plus contract by the DPC but this time it was done without a competitive tender. This contract expired in October 2022.
It is unclear if the firm has been handed a third million-dollar deal. QDOS ran focus groups and online surveys polling people living in metropolitan and regional areas. The forensic nature of the focus groups is one of the is worth noting. The firm specalises in segmenting the population by gender, age, occupation and other demographic measures. For instance, in one May 2020 email to Lissie Ratcliff, the Premier’s chief of staff, QDOS talked in terms of “females living in South Yarra” and referenced other focus groups as “Dandenong males” and
“Dandenong males”. Since 2016, QDOS has also landed at least 12 taxpayer-funded consultancies with Victorian government departments and agencies.
QDOS told the state Labor government in its pitch for the contract that “Our job is to find the messages that have an impact.”
“Good messages will energise the base,” QDOS says.
“This is vital because these are the people who actually do most of the persuading at workplaces, in the community, in their homes and at family barbecues.
“Good messages will persuade the centre. When they are persuaded, good policy is granted via the democratic process that creates our laws.”
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Who is John Armitage?
John Armitage is a veteran Labor political operative who first came into contact with Daniel Andrews in the early 2000s when the future premier was an assistant state secretary of the Victorian ALP.
“He’s been Dan’s guy for years,” one Labor insider remarked about the relationship between Armitage and Andrews.
Armitage is more than a Labor loyalist – he doesn’t just wear his Labor heart on his sleeve, he wraps himself in a class-war battle flag as he goes about helping the Premier read, perhaps even steer, the mood of Victorians.
Asked to describe himself in an online post entitled “John on John”, the Labor pollster declares: “I’m a paid-up and proud union member – even though I’m self-employed. That’s ’cos I’m a lefty and fair dinkum about it.”
Asked to describe the value he brings to clients, Armitage says: “If my research says the public isn’t open to their client’s message, they say ‘Thanks for that John, very interesting. Now go back out there and find out how to change their minds.’ ”
Armitage makes the case that fanning the flames of class war can be a useful political tactic.
“If we really want to put the acid on … maybe we should try something like this: ‘You don’t hear about many strikes these days. That’s because workers no longer have the right to strike for better pay and conditions or even better safety in just about every situation. The bosses now have the whip hand. No wonder the wages of working people have been the same for years as the cost of living goes up and up. ‘If we had the right to strike, you can bet the corporations would take a bit more interest in fair pay and conditions for working people.’ ”
Armitage has advised QDOS political clients to “antagonise” their opponents.
“This is often overlooked but (is) a vital part of any communications strategy. If no one disagrees then there is no debate,” the company said.
“But public opinion (and ultimately therefore public policy) cannot change if there is no debate. Antagonised opponents are angrier, less coherent and less persuasive.
“The response of opponents also tells us the worthiness of our policy position. If no one is against what you are saying there’s a fairly strong chance that you aren’t saying anything.”
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How did the survey results impact Covid lockdowns in Victoria?
From as early as March 2020, the Andrews government redirected QDOS from general political and community research to focus on Covid-19 related surveys and focus groups.
The Andrews government maintained throughout 2020 and 2021 that the lockdown measures imposed on the community for a world-record 260+ days were guided by health advice.
And QDOS polling does show that among the issues that it tested the mood on were frontline health issues such as washing hands, masks, social distancing, working from home.
But the QDOS documents also show that QDOS embarked on intensive monitoring of the views of Victorians to specific lockdown restrictions such as the 5km travel limit, the 8pm curfew, industry shutdowns, child care closures, the metro-regional divide and it could be
argued that this was more about pressure-testing the community’s reaction to the lockdown measures. This doesn’t necessarily equate to health advice.
The QDOS documents don’t detail the raw data behind the surveys (which is believed to run to 1800 pages in just 2020), but the analysis of that data from QDOS suggests strongly that the secret surveys helped inform the lockdown strategy and certainly the political strategy of the Premier.
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Why was this polling important to Daniel Andrews?
QDOS documents show that the Covid-19 polling was at times conducted on a daily basis online and focus groups were held throughout Melbourne and the Victoria on a fortnightly basis. At times, members of the Premier’s Private Office were invited to watch the focus groups live. Links to the recordings of the focus groups were also sent to the PPO.
The QDOS analysis was sent to the DPC and briefed into the crisis cabinet.
Having such a “real time” analysis on the mood of people armed Premier Daniel Andrews with an extraordinary insight into what many people were thinking and helped give him confidence that while there was a lot of noise and criticism thrown at him personally and his government, the QDOS analysis suggests even more people continued to support both the lockdown measures and him personally.
It’s likely that the QDCOS research underpinned the Premier’s decision to appear at more than 100 daily press conferences in a row as the analysis concludes that people retained confidence in his leadership and ability to provide critical information.
One QDOS analysis briefing note in August 2020, advises:
“We can reasonably conclude that the government and the primary spokesperson, Dan Andrews, still have credibility and the confidence of the people who will trust, support and follow the decisions that need to be taken.”
“Strong support for Dan Andrews and a broad acknowledgement of the good job he and the government are doing in very difficult circumstances”.
Interestingly, John Armitage advises his clients to use plain-speaking to get their message across, and while Labor figures say Andrews has developed his own messaging, there is a commonality between that and the advice from his spin doctor.
QDOS advises clients to use everyday language: “no jargon and write it like you’re speaking to a friend” and “make sure your point connects with their lives” and “your values are your message, the facts are just the support act” and “good framing means getting people to look at issues through your value prism.”
It’s worth comparing these golden QDOS rules with Dan Andrews’ most famous words during the lockdown: “You won’t be able to go to the pub, because the pub is shut. That doesn’t mean you can have all your mates around to home and get on the beers.”
For his part, when questioned about his association with QDOS, Andrews has declared: “I’m no Manchurian candidate.”
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