Crisis has Victorian Coalition on ropes: Newspoll

THE ailing Napthine government’s election-year budget has failed to win over voters, the latest Newspoll shows.

Victorian Premier Denis Napthine at State Parliament. Picture: Hamish Blair

THE ailing Napthine government’s election-year budget has failed to win over voters, as rolling political crises and federal spending cuts further weaken the administration’s hold on ­office, the latest Newspoll shows.

The poll, taken exclusively for The Australian over the past two months, shows the government would have been comfortably defeated at the polls, with Labor holding a 54 per cent to 46 per cent lead over the Coalition on a two- party-preferred basis.

Primary-vote support for the Greens has jumped to 16 per cent while the Liberal Party dropped three points to 33 per cent and Labor was largely unmoved on 38 per cent. The Nationals’ ­primary vote was 4 per cent, nearly three points below the ­result at the 2010 election.

Labor leader Daniel ­Andrews’s dissatisfaction rating climbed four points to 37 per cent and dissatisfaction with Premier Denis Napthine jumped five points to 40 per cent.

Dr Napthine’s better-premier rating climbed three points to 42 per cent and Mr Andrews was statistically unchanged on 29 per cent, with nearly a third of voters yet to commit to either leader.

PDF: The latest Victoria Newspoll

The poll result will alarm ­government officials who were expecting last month’s big-spending budget would have been the stepladder to election victory on November 29, with surpluses tot­al­ling $11 billion and $27bn worth of infrastructure ­spending.

Adding to his troubles, Dr Napthine spent yesterday fighting off controversy over a leaked recording detailing ­former premier Ted Baillieu unloading on colleagues and fuelling the abortion debate during an off-the-record conversation with a Fairfax Media journalist.

A recording of the conversation was leaked, probably by rogue Liberals, sparking a police investigation and condemnation from the government over how the recording was made and then leaked.

The Newspoll was conducted in May and this month, taking in the state and federal budgets and the crisis over suspended independent Geoff Shaw.

Dr Napthine’s inner sanctum has blamed the Coalition’s poor showing on the fallout from the federal budget. But the government has been enveloped in controversy, specifically over Mr Shaw, who is suspended from parliament.

Labor’s strong two-party-preferred vote is despite its own primary vote being less than two points higher than in 2010. The Liberal Party is down five points and the Nationals nearly three points. Labor will be closely monitoring the three-point increase in the Greens vote, which has climbed to be nearly five points above the election.

Government ministers condemned Fairfax Media’s handling of the leaked tape controversy, Dr Napthine urging The Sunday Age to explain how it fell into hostile hands.

It is unclear if Mr Baillieu gave the newspaper permission to record the conversation. It has not been ruled out that the recorder, which The Age claims was stolen, was picked up by the Labor Party and then handed to Liberal operatives.

A small group of rogue Liberals have been blamed for disseminating the recording and The Age says it has complained to police about misuse of the conversation. The Age did not respond to questions.

Police did not comment.